The Price Movement In Gold Told Us Trump Would Win A Week Ahead Of Time – Now It Reveals The Future Again!

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Written by:   Avery B. Goodman

Recently, almost all prognosticators were predicting that Donald Trump would lose the 2016 election and that Hillary Clinton would be our new President. A lot of people were, and still are astonished, at the fact that I was certain that Mr. Trump was going to be our new President, a week before the election, at a time that all the polls said he was sure to lose. Indeed, if by some miracle Trump happened to win, almost everyone said the price of gold would soar. When Mr. Trump defied all their expectations and did win, it did soar, but only for a few hours. After that, it was downhill all the way. Many people continue to be perplexed. The confusion comes from the fact that, even though most people now realize the price of gold is rigged, they don’t fully grasp what that means.

It really is amazing what you can learn about the world around you, simply by carefully watching the machinations of market manipulators. Those of us who look closely at gold price manipulation knew that Donald Trump would be the 45th President of the United States. We already told our friends about it, and they’d all already had their full of laughing at us. We said it didn’t matter what the polls were reporting. We knew the public polls were lying. We had much more reliable pollsters working for us. The best thing about it was that banksters were the ones who paid for those pollsters. We didn’t pay one red cent!

I am going to use this article as a nice way to avoid having to repeat the same story to a hundred different people. I am going to tell you how I knew. To benefit from what I am about to share with you, cleanse your mind of all the preconceptions you came in with. Forget about the money supply, market sentiment, exchange rates, inflation, and inflationary expectations. Forget about the quaint notion that supply and demand (in the short to medium run) has anything to do with the price of gold. Most importantly, forget about technical analysis. Fibonacci is as worthless as an Elliott wave when the manipulators paint the tape. It’s all rubbish.

The pricing factors I’ve just rattled off, in the preceding paragraph, do affect gold prices at specific points of time. But, in determining the near-term price of gold, they pale to insignificance compared to market manipulation. A lack of supply, for example, will eventually cause the price of gold to rise over the very long term. This will happen mainly because western central planners have a limited supply of gold and want to conserve it. Accordingly, they may obey a political decision to slow down the hemorrhage of yellow metal from their vaults. That causes prices to rise. It’s probably the reason gold prices rose dramatically from 2001 to 2011.

Here is the bottom line: the pricing factors that pundits like to talk about eventually matter. They just don’t matter now. They will matter when the official gold reserves of the United States are exhausted or closed off to access by market manipulators for political reasons. Their closure, as a matter of fact, is about to happen next year, so you won’t have to wait very long. But, in the meantime, until Mr. Barack Obama actually leaves the White House, what matters most is what the market manipulators do. It’s that plain and simple.

Gold is under-supplied and over-demanded, and this has been true for a very long time. Since the Crash of 2008, this problem has grown exponentially. The gap between supply and demand is now enormous. As I pointed out, way back, at the end of the summer of 2015, the deficiency of supply meant that a minimum of 606 tons had to be pumped in to meet demand in 2015. By 2016, if they had not allowed prices to rise, someone would have had to supply something like 1,345 tons, in 2016, to keep prices below $1,200 per ounce.

Soon after I wrote the article, Goldman Sachs began buying physical gold like it was going out of style, even as they were telling everyone else to sell. About 6 months after they stocked up, prices began to soar. Asset prices often tend to move on that approximate timetable when Goldman is involved. But, the key thing to remember is that physical gold (unlike electronic futures contracts) cannot be conjured out of thin air. The hard yellow metal must come from somewhere. The most likely origin for the massive tonnage of gold that has backstopped market manipulation, for the last 5 years, is the United States Gold Reserve.

The Obama administration appears to have agreed to guaranty the banksters’ downside gold manipulations with “location swaps”. In a “location swap”, a lien is placed on bars of gold stored in an inconvenient location in exchange for bars of gold stored in a convenient location. The liens are assigned to a bank that has possession of easily deliverable bars of gold. It is highly likely that the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, which hold great quantities of gold on behalf of foreign governments, were assigned liens against US Treasury gold held at Fort Knox. Once in possession of the liens, the Fed and BofE delivered the gold bars from their vaults into the market via J.P. Morgan and other banks.

Can I prove this scenario with the required level of certainty in a court of law. No. It would be impossible. No private attorney could ever succeed in proving it. To prove it to a formal legal standard, you need the power to send agents to seize documents and things before the banks could destroy them. Only a determined US prosecuting attorney, or the Attorney General of the United States has that kind of power and because the issue is so sensitive that is unlikely to happen even under the Trump administration. Yet, the conclusions are so logical and so deeply supported by the circumstantial evidence and common sense, that they are almost certain to be true.

The CEOs of all of the major international banking houses that deal in gold paid a visit to the White House, at 11:00 am, the day before the biggest price attack in history was launched against gold in April, 2013. They didn’t go there to play checkers. Nor were they there to commiserate with Obama about the banking industry as the media reported at the time. The latter claim is just a cover story. The CEOs went there to talk about gold, and to urge Obama to release enough of it to silence the “canary in the coal mine” (gold price increases) because it was loudly chirping that his policies, which they supported, were failing.

In short, American government has been supplying physical gold to back up gold price manipulation. I am not talking about merely supplying what is required to back up .4% of the futures contract buyers at COMEX who demand physical delivery.  I am talking about backing up the gap amounting to hundreds and even well over a thousand tons of the stuff every year. This is metal that must be delivered by the banks all over the globe — to China, India, South America, Europe and the Middle East.

For example, when gold was selling for less than $1,200 per ounce, some entity (whom I nicknamed the “gold supplier of last resort) supplied a minimum of 606 tons of gold (probably a lot more) in 2015. By 2016, that same entity would have had to deliver 1,345 tons more to keep prices at 2015 levels. If the supply gap had not been filled prices would have returned quickly to a minimum of $1,500 – $1,600 range where supply and demand converged back in 2012.

Let’s fast forward to late 2016. The price of gold had already dramatically risen since I’d written those articles about the shortfalls. As the prices rose, of course, physical demand fell. However, physical demand has never fallen low enough to completely relieve the pressure on US gold reserves. Higher prices simply reduced the pressure, but did not eliminate it. Had Clinton won the Presidential election, things would have continued the way the manipulators planned. They were slowly allowing prices to normalize toward an equalization of supply & demand, making a few million in profits along the way.

But, as the beginning of November began to unfold, the banksters got shocked by a surprise. The person “annointed” by them, to be the next President, was going to lose the election. They’d used their campaign contributions to control the Presidency for decades! But, in 2016, for the first time perhaps in history, hundreds of millions of dollars have been wasted. In spite of all the money they poured into the Hillary Clinton campaign, Donald J. Trump was going to win.

The public pollsters who work for the likes of the NY Times, CNN, NBC, et. al. weren’t about to let the American public know that, of course. But, the banksters knew better. They have their own private pollsters. Unlike the public polling companies that work for the mainstream media, the results delivered by these private pollsters are not contaminated by political distortion. The bankster’s private polling agencies are entirely impartial and accurate. They have to be. Billions of dollars in depositor cash were riding on it, all at risk inside the derivatives casino the banksters have created.

The key manipulators knew the truth… and it showed… several days before the election. Because they knew the truth, those of us who follow their antics also knew. All you had to do was watch what they were doing to the price of gold, toward the end of the week that preceded election day. Their actions clearly broadcast that Donald J. Trump would win the Presidency on November 8th.

Our new President-elect has often expressed an affinity for the yellow metal and even the gold standard. He is almost certain to reverse the executive orders, signed by Obama, that secretly gave the banksters unfettered access to pissing away America’s treasure. That’s why when they found out he was almost certain to win, they had to change their strategy dramatically. A Trump win meant that their use of US government’s gold was about to end, and they need that gold in order to carry out profitable price manipulations in the futures markets.

Just like they did prior to the British Brexit vote, the banksters acted ahead of time. They began attacking gold prices toward the end of the week before the election. Yet, no one can be 100% sure their pollsters are correct. Not even independent polls without bias can provide 100% certainty. Therefore, the manipulations of the week prior to the election seem relatively small-scale. I believe that they were primarily geared toward assisting individual banksters address private portfolios with an expectation about what they would do with public money afterward. The main part of the upcoming manipulation would be saved until after the election result was certain.

As news of Trump’s win became known to the general public, non-connected traders, who innocently believed that real market factors drive gold prices, believed that prices would rise if Trump became President. They began to pour assets into the gold futures market. That sent gold prices soaring. It was also music to the ears of the manipulators. It allowed them to take a lot of transient short positions at the highest possible prices. Having done that, they proceeded to attack the long buyers by bombarding the COMEX (where world gold prices are set) with a huge tonnage of paper gold futures contracts. Prices began to tumble in response to this wave of transient short selling.

Remember, to create gold futures contracts, you don’t need to possess any real gold. All you need are U.S. dollars to put down as so-called “performance bonds”. The well financed banksters have access to a virtually unlimited amount of dollars simply by tapping the Federal Reserve’s so-called “loan windows”. They stepped down hard, putting the pedal to the metal. They used their cash to back up performance bonds on thousands of tons of theoretical (nonexistent except on paper) gold bullion, targeting pre-existing stop-loss orders placed by the over-leveraged non-connected futures long buying crowd.

As always, they succeeded in triggering involuntary liquidation, which in turn triggered lower prices, triggering more stop loss orders, more involuntary liquidation and eventually triggering margin calls. The over-leveraged non-connected hedge fund managers did what they always do. They began panicking. The connected banksters continued to attack, eliciting more and more pain and panic, and it continued, as it always does, until the computerized algorithms determined that the process was no longer effective.

Then, in the midst of the shell-shocked “market” the banksters again did what they always do. They carefully and quietly coordinated with each other to cover both the transient short positions that induced the panic, and the longer term short positions they had been aiming to get rid of. The process of market manipulation, using futures markets, is not that difficult to understand, but a full description does require more space than this article allows. For a better understanding of how banksters induce artificial long and short “squeezes”, for fun and profit, read the novel “The Synod”.

Donald J. Trump is now President-elect. When he takes office on January 20th, the banksters will lose access to the US gold reserve. Without those thousands of tons of gold to offset ongoing supply shortages, the price of gold will rise dramatically. The banksters now need to escape from as many short positions as they can before that happens. To do it, they must induce involuntary liquidation and panic selling. That is what they have been doing.

Manipulators also want to escape from long positions in the US dollar. The non-connected hedge fund managers, innocent though they may be, were on to something. Under the Trump administration, the price of gold will rise sharply, and the US dollar will eventually fall. It just won’t happen for the reasons they believed or on the timetable that they assumed. The banksters are only slightly less concerned about escaping long positions in the US dollar as short positions in gold. So, they’ve induced the same type of involuntary liquidation and panic covering by short dollar speculators as with long gold speculators. In gold, they engineered a “long squeeze”. In the dollar, it’s a short squeeze… the exact opposite.

Since a rise in the dollar puts some pressure on gold prices, the two squeezes have a great deal of synergy. Each assists the other in accomplishing the ultimate goal, which is to assist the banksters and the connected hedge funds they control to shift their portfolio positioning, maximizing future profits while minimizing losses. It is even easier to panic dollar short position holders than gold long buyers. All you really have to do is hold up the specter of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Best of all, you don’t even have to worry about meeting delivery demand even for paper, let alone hard real metal. The dollar is now nothing more than 95% electronic digital notations on a banking ledger.

Like the long gold buyers, dollar short sellers are dramatically over-leveraged and under-capitalized, and cannot hold out against the slightest rise in exchange value of the dollar.  Price movement in the US dollar is even easier when you can warn that the incoming Trump administration will induce the repatriation of hundreds of billions of US dollars by American corporations overseas. The incoming President has promised a tax holiday to companies that bring money back to America from overseas. Uninformed hedge fund managers assume that the repatriation of dollars from abroad must result in a rise in the exchange value of the dollar. They would be right if the dollars were now being stored in the form of Euros or Pounds Sterling. But, they are not.

A vast majority of the funds that will be repatriated to the United States are already in the form of dollar deposits. The dollars are inside foreign banks but don’t need to be converted. For example, euro-dollar deposits can be easily transferred from Barclays branches in the U.K. and J.P. Morgan branches in Germany to those in the United States. All it takes is an electronic notation that says the money is now assigned to a branch in America rather than abroad. No currency conversion required. The dollars will even remain available for foreigners to borrow! In short, the net effect, other than the propaganda value in convincing non-connected hedge fund managers that the move is meaningful to markets, is meaningless.

The history of dollar repatriation further supports the fact that dollar repatriation has almost no significant impact on exchange rates. The last amnesty occurred during the Bush administration during the period 2004-05. At that time, multinational corporations transferred about $345 billion to the USA. The 2017 transfer will probably be bigger but it still won’t matter much because a vast majority of the funds are already dollar denominated. In 2004-05, the US dollar’s exchange value went up only very slightly for a very short time. Mostly, like now, it happened before the law became effective. Then, as will happen again, the dollar declined.

Historical facts don’t matter, however, because gamblers are not historians and generally pay no attention to history. They make decisions on the basis of technical analysis and their gut emotions. That’s what the manipulators count on. The process of moving asset prices up and down for fun and profit is all about inducing irrationality, panic and, on occasion, euphoria. It is certainly not about explaining real facts. The over-leveraged non-connected hedge fund managers do not understand the facts. But, you may… so here they are — our new President-elect has promised to bring manufacturing jobs back to a hollowed out US economy.  It will be very difficult to do that with a soaring US dollar. Trump’s new Treasury Secretary will not allow the dollar to soar, regardless of what the market gamblers now believe. A lot of non-connected hedge fund managers are about to lose a lot of money for their investors.

Watching the gold market carefully is particularly helpful in providing accurate predictions on both when a manipulation is likely to begin and when it will end. Typically, the gold “market” is subjected to heavy manipulation late in every month prior to major futures contract maturity dates. Since December is always the biggest gold delivery month of the year, it makes perfect sense that a lot of manipulation would take place leading up to it, especially given the election factor described above. Market manipulations will usually continue into the first part of the delivery month itself ending somewhere in the early to middle part.

Let’s use December as our illustration of the process. December futures options expire late in November. Huge sums of money are at stake if options expire “in the money”. Therefore, like at any other casino, the banksters change the odds inside the slot machines. The big derivatives writing banks appear to manipulate underlying futures prices to insure that the price, on expiration, results in a minimum payout. If the balance of the options purchases show that too many people will get paid at a certain price, they won’t allow the price to hit that level on the day of expiration. If minimizing payouts and maximizing profits requires upward manipulation, the price will go up. If it requires downward action, the price will go down. By the time they are finished, almost every time, the manipulators will have insured that their sponsoring banks pay the least amount possible to the gamblers who own the options.

Controlling the gold market, however, as previously noted, is more difficult than controlling a purely paper or electronic notation-based market, like that for a fiat currency. Control is limited by the willingness of the government to guaranty the delivery of physical gold necessary to back up the manipulations. The extent to which President Obama and his Treasury Secretary have allowed or restricted utilization of the U.S. Treasury-owned gold has determined its price for at least five years. That’s how we know that, once access to the reserves is cut off, the price of gold must go up.

Typically, downward (or upward on rare occasions) gold manipulation does not end with the options expiration date. Banks also need to make large deliveries of real gold during big futures maturity months. They want to pay as little as possible for that gold. They are buying a lot of it, indirectly, from the US gold reserve, but that doesn’t matter. Wherever it comes from, they always seem to have an eye on manipulating the prices to wherever they need to be in order to maximize profits. The December gold delivery month is usually the largest of the year, so the incentive to manipulate before and into December is always very strong, even without an incoming new President.

By now, you may be wondering how and when, if ever, the price manipulation will end? When will gold prices do what they are supposed to do?  When will they be allowed to rise? The answer is simple and I will repeat it, once more. President Donald J. Trump will take office on January 20th. After that, the banksters will be cut off from the US gold reserve. Gold prices may rise somewhat earlier than that, but they will certainly shoot up starting in January 2017. It is likely that the  price appreciation in 2017 will be significant.

Gold prices must rise to at least $1,500 – $1,600 per ounce, because that was the point at which, during 2012, supply approximately equaled demand, without injections from the US gold reserve. We might already be there, but for the US Presidential elections. We will now have to wait a bit longer but the payoff will probably be greater. Because the demand for gold is higher than in 2012, and the supply is lower, however, the two may no longer balance at $1,600. The price may have to shoot considerably further than that. It is a good idea to take advantage of the the current market manipulation to buy gold or related metals at a favorable price.

The dollar is a bit trickier. Its future course is no longer as easy to predict as the price of gold. So long as the Federal Reserve keeps its loan windows open, it will continue to be easily manipulated by banksters, regardless of who holds the White House. Also, it has been and will probably continue to be underpinned (somewhat) by weakness in competing fiat currencies such as the Euro. Nevertheless, the hedge fund managers who are buying it now, in the belief that it will rise dramatically above the current level, are going to lose a lot of money. The incoming President will not allow the dollar to soar, because it would destroy American exports.

Nothing I’ve discussed in this article addresses the thorniest issue of all. The Obama administration, working in conjunction with other western leaders and the major central banks, have created what is probably the biggest financial bubble the world has ever known. Specifically, I am talking about the bond bubble. When it implodes, it will be painful. Even if the new President’s policies are as successful as they can possibly be, it is hard to imagine how he can prevent the implosion of this unstable situation. If the bubble implodes, then all bets are off as to how high gold prices can soar.

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43 thoughts on “The Price Movement In Gold Told Us Trump Would Win A Week Ahead Of Time – Now It Reveals The Future Again!”

    1. If you like the book, don’t forget to leave a review at Amazon! With Black Friday and the Christmas season upon us, positive reviews drive gift-giving!

        1. A fine gift choice, if I must say so myself. Assuming you enjoy reading it, don’t forget to leave a review at Amazon. Best regards!

  1. The evidence for the gold price manipulation is indeed overwhelming. Not only is the price manipulated, but the demand for gold is also controlled by the steady flow of “gold bashing”. Indeed, lots is at stake. The superiority of the western life style is dependent on the successful management (via paper markets) of all commodity prices in effect allowing the west to consume more than it produces. That can not continue forever. The backing of the Dollar by the US military might may not last forever in view of the rising military power of Russia and China. Personally, I hope that the manipulation will continue for a long time so I can continue to accumulate ounces of gold at subsidized prices.

    Thanks Avery for your excellent article. Could you also please comment on platinum (as you did in the past) ?

    1. Platinum will follow gold subject to certain caveats. The central bankers don’t have much platinum to supply to the manipulators. The demand for the metal will go up, as it has done continuously for the last few years. The supply deficit keeps getting bigger, and with no new investment in mines, as a result of prices below extraction + develop costs, it is only a matter of time before available above-ground stocks are entirely depleted. When this first occurs, we may see platinum rise like a shooting star, something like Rhodium back in 2007-08 (it went to $10,000 per ounce for a very short time). Then, the price will come rest somewhere in the normal price ratio range that it normally shares with gold, which is anywhere from 1.3 – 2 to 1.

      Barring unforeseen circumstances, within the next few years what I have described above is sure to occur, sending platinum up much faster than gold, for a time. And, although his help isn’t needed, if Trump really follows through with promises of heavy infrastructure investment, and doubly so if Europe copies him which it probably will eventually, a huge amount of new heavy diesel off-road equipment is going to be be built. That equipment is no longer exempt from pollution control and it should force a platinum spike even faster.

    2. I hate to disagree but markets are not in a bubble and no one is suppressing the gold price to instill dollar confidence. Lets look at the S&P P/E ratios. In the 87 crash it was 50/1, the dot come bust 46.5/1, the 2008/9 crisis 122/1. Today we are at 24/1. Does anybody even remotely see a bubble here? Of course not.
      The Dow going to 20,000 then to 23,000.
      Now for gold. The dollar is in a long term bullish trend which equates to across the board commodity weakness including gold and silver. The FED has been desperate to create dollar weakness. The US is a large exporter especially of commodities and a strong dollar makes these expensive in foreign markets with demand falling then prices. The FED is so desperate that they have ask central banks to sell dollars hence the recent selling of treasuries for dollars and the selling of dollars. Even China sold because they are a huge importer of US commodities and they are being to expensive to import. The FED also wants to help banks who have lent over $9 trillion in dollar denominated loans to foreign entities and a strong dollar makes these difficult to service.
      So the idea that the FED is suppressing the gold price to instill dollar confidence is simply nonsense as they in fact have been attempting the opposite. There is simply to many global forces working against the FED. For the previous 7 weeks currency traders in London have been hammering the EUR/USD and GBP/USD crosses and driving up the USD/JPY cross all creating dollar strength. After London closed New York has been doing the opposite and creating short term dollar weakness with London the next day doing it again. As this involves 4 of the 5 world’s reserve currencies the daily volume has been in the trillions as London has over twice the volume as New York. Then in Europe with the euro and the EU collapsing huge international capital flows have been flooding into dollar based assets especially the dollar and the Dow. The you have entities who have been exchanging euro for dollars. Also in India they are exchanging rupees for dollars. All this creates dollar strength which again the FED does not want.
      All markets trade the same with HFT algos driving short term price movement in the opposite direction of the longer term trend and then adding trades and riding this trend. When New York has been creating short term dollar weakness the algos on the Comex have been driving the gold price up not down, waiting for long term dollar strength to return and then adding shorts riding price weakness back down. They were consistently driving price up to the 1362 bearish reversal level and then adding shorts. When London started monkey hammering the crosses price moved from the 1362 level down to and thru the 1240 reversal level. Then the algos were driving up price to the 1300 and then adding shorts riding price weakness back down. You simply cannot have a significant rise in gold with all this dollar strength.
      The FED could care less what the gold price is as this does not determine dollar strength or weakness. This is determined by huge international capital flows.
      This is simply how price movement in one market, currencies, effects price movement in other markets like the CME, Comex, NYMEX, LBME, etc.
      There is simply no price suppression in any regulated market. The instances of rigging were all taking place where there actually are no regulated markets and this was short term manipulation which did not change the longer term trend.
      Don’t take my word for it but open a demo forex account with the XAU/USD cross and watch the major dollar crosses. When the crosses are creating dollar weakness watch the gold price being driven up by the HFT algos and then when dollar strength returns, traders at the Comex adding their shorts riding price weakness back down.
      Price movement becomes very predictable!

      1. JJ, I was actually referring primarily to the bond bubble. The total stock market valuation is but a pittance compared to the bond market. Therefore, total implosion of the stock market would have a much lesser effect than a similar implosion in bonds. However, the decline in stock valuations, during the last Crisis, started as early as 2007, when the P/E ratio was just a bit over 17. It continued into 2008. Then, by early 2009, when a sudden deep decline set in over a short period of a few months, it is true that the P/E ratio was up to 71. However, that was not because stock prices had risen, but because earnings had fallen. If earnings fall, going forward from here, as they probably would if interest rates rise, P/E ratios will change in line with the lower earnings.

        The P/E ratio can be misleading because earnings reflect flooding of money into financial markets also. Thus, when the Fed flooded money into the economy back in the late 1920s, in a foolish attempt to help the British central bank manage the British pound, both earnings and stocks went up. By January 1929, the P/E ratio was merely a little under 17.76, even though stock prices had skyrocketed. By January 1931, even though stock prices were an order of magnitude lower, the P/E ratio was still 17! As you can see, the P/E ratio provides no insight into predicting whether we will see a bull or bear market going forward.

        In order to put everyone on the “same page” and to avoid confusion, here is a table setting out the historical P/E numbers for the S&P 500:

        PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO OF THE S&P 500 INDEX STOCKS
        (Source: Schiller, Robert “Irrational Exuberance”
        http://amzn.to/2fQ4kOV)

        Date Value
        Nov 25, 2016 25.46 estimate
        Jan 1, 2016 22.18
        Jan 1, 2015 20.02
        Jan 1, 2014 18.15
        Jan 1, 2013 17.03
        Jan 1, 2012 14.87
        Jan 1, 2011 16.30
        Jan 1, 2010 20.70
        Jan 1, 2009 70.91
        Jan 1, 2008 21.46
        Jan 1, 2007 17.36
        Jan 1, 2006 18.07
        Jan 1, 2005 19.99
        Jan 1, 2004 22.73
        Jan 1, 2003 31.43
        Jan 1, 2002 46.17
        Jan 1, 2001 27.55
        Jan 1, 2000 29.04
        Jan 1, 1999 32.92
        Jan 1, 1998 24.29
        Jan 1, 1997 19.53
        Jan 1, 1996 18.08
        Jan 1, 1995 14.89
        Jan 1, 1994 21.34
        Jan 1, 1993 22.50
        Jan 1, 1992 25.93
        Jan 1, 1991 15.35
        Jan 1, 1990 15.13
        Jan 1, 1989 11.82
        Jan 1, 1988 14.03
        Jan 1, 1987 18.01
        Jan 1, 1986 14.28
        Jan 1, 1985 10.36
        Jan 1, 1984 11.52
        Jan 1, 1983 11.48
        Jan 1, 1982 7.73
        Jan 1, 1981 9.02
        Jan 1, 1980 7.39
        Jan 1, 1979 7.88
        Jan 1, 1978 8.28
        Jan 1, 1977 10.41
        Jan 1, 1976 11.83
        Jan 1, 1975 8.30
        Jan 1, 1974 11.68
        Jan 1, 1973 18.08
        Jan 1, 1972 18.00
        Jan 1, 1971 18.12
        Jan 1, 1970 15.76
        Jan 1, 1969 17.65
        Jan 1, 1968 17.70
        Jan 1, 1967 15.30
        Jan 1, 1966 17.81
        Jan 1, 1965 18.76
        Jan 1, 1964 18.78
        Jan 1, 1963 17.68
        Jan 1, 1962 21.25
        Jan 1, 1961 18.60
        Jan 1, 1960 17.12
        Jan 1, 1959 18.79
        Jan 1, 1958 12.50
        Jan 1, 1957 13.32
        Jan 1, 1956 12.13
        Jan 1, 1955 12.58
        Jan 1, 1954 10.10
        Jan 1, 1953 10.86
        Jan 1, 1952 9.95
        Jan 1, 1951 7.47
        Jan 1, 1950 7.21
        Jan 1, 1949 6.62
        Jan 1, 1948 9.04
        Jan 1, 1947 13.46
        Jan 1, 1946 19.17
        Jan 1, 1945 14.35
        Jan 1, 1944 12.61
        Jan 1, 1943 9.70
        Jan 1, 1942 7.97
        Jan 1, 1941 10.05
        Jan 1, 1940 13.23
        Jan 1, 1939 18.94
        Jan 1, 1938 10.47
        Jan 1, 1937 16.75
        Jan 1, 1936 17.87
        Jan 1, 1935 16.25
        Jan 1, 1934 23.95
        Jan 1, 1933 17.29
        Jan 1, 1932 14.07
        Jan 1, 1931 17.00
        Jan 1, 1930 13.92
        Jan 1, 1929 17.76
        Jan 1, 1928 15.51
        Jan 1, 1927 10.89
        Jan 1, 1926 10.12
        Jan 1, 1925 11.02
        Jan 1, 1924 9.01
        Jan 1, 1923 12.54
        Jan 1, 1922 22.81
        Jan 1, 1921 9.36
        Jan 1, 1920 9.60
        Jan 1, 1919 7.93
        Jan 1, 1918 5.72
        Jan 1, 1917 6.34
        Jan 1, 1916 10.03
        Jan 1, 1915 13.60
        Jan 1, 1914 13.50
        Jan 1, 1913 13.48
        Jan 1, 1912 15.20
        Jan 1, 1911 12.88
        Jan 1, 1910 13.26
        Jan 1, 1909 15.10
        Jan 1, 1908 10.54
        Jan 1, 1907 12.75
        Jan 1, 1906 14.51
        Jan 1, 1905 16.53
        Jan 1, 1904 12.60
        Jan 1, 1903 13.65
        Jan 1, 1902 15.92
        Jan 1, 1901 14.73
        Jan 1, 1900 12.71
        Jan 1, 1899 16.89
        Jan 1, 1898 15.74
        Jan 1, 1897 19.18
        Jan 1, 1896 17.08
        Jan 1, 1895 25.00
        Jan 1, 1894 17.28
        Jan 1, 1893 15.58
        Jan 1, 1892 16.21
        Jan 1, 1891 16.69
        Jan 1, 1890 17.93
        Jan 1, 1889 20.15
        Jan 1, 1888 15.17
        Jan 1, 1887 16.91
        Jan 1, 1886 18.57
        Jan 1, 1885 13.68
        Jan 1, 1884 13.28
        Jan 1, 1883 13.51
        Jan 1, 1882 13.45
        Jan 1, 1881 12.63
        Jan 1, 1880 13.10
        Jan 1, 1879 11.19
        Jan 1, 1878 10.83
        Jan 1, 1877 12.68
        Jan 1, 1876 12.74
        Jan 1, 1875 10.09
        Jan 1, 1874 10.13
        Jan 1, 1873 11.88
        Jan 1, 1872 12.15
        Jan 1, 1871 11.10

        1. Your P/E info only shows a particular month of the year, (January), and do not show the highest P/E ratios for that year. For example on June 30, 2009 at markets close, the ratio was 122.41/1. The high in 87 was 50/1 and the high in the dot com bust in 2002 was 46.5/1.
          I agree that a bond crash would be more devastating than equities crashing. But capital would simply move from bonds to the equity markets. Martin Armstrong’s computer models are forecasting a peak in the bond market in 2018.895. This is when the sovereign debt crisis rears it ugly head again with a vengeance first hitting the EU countries and finally coming here. This is when it really hits the fan.

          1. The general timetable seems about right, although picking it with such precision seems to be somewhat questionable. At any rate, money could flow from bonds into stocks, gold, commodities, a combination of them, or anything else. If the people become frightened enough, money could easily flow into bank accounts or mattresses. I wouldn’t blindly rely on a computer model, no matter how well it may have performed in the past. The big banks also had complex computer models that were said to be infallible, and they did perform very well for many years… until they finally didn’t, and gave America the subprime crisis.

  2. Interesting read with facts and suppositions which lead to probable conclusions, except for one unknowable, i.e., will Trump in fact close the gold window. I hope so, want it so and think perhaps China, Russia and others may play a large part in that happening.
    Thank you very much.
    J

  3. What a frustratingly persistent and destructive crime this collusive manipulation by the Fed/Govt/bullion banksters is. Your article does give some hope. But, since what you are more or less predicting will happen is based on the premise that “Donald J. Trump is now President-elect [and W]hen he takes office on January 20th, the banksters will lose access to the US gold reserve,” could you briefly outline how you know this. I’d love it to be true, but looking at his cabinet/administration choices, both known and potential, I find it very hard to understand what he intends to do in any context, including regarding gold and gold reserves and further “cooperation” (collusion?) or lack thereof with the banksters. How do you know for sure this is his plan, because if it is NOT, the whole scenario would appear to fall apart. Thanks very much.

    1. I don’t know with 100% certainty that Trump will close off the US gold reserve. Nothing is known with 100% certainty, and no investment decision can ever be based on such a standard. I reach my conclusion based upon strong circumstantial evidence combined with logic, reason and common sense.

      Virtually everyone advising Trump is pro-gold. That is in marked contrast to those advising Obama, who are statists and hostile to gold. Trump, himself, has often commented on the wisdom of the gold standard, and how much he wishes the USA had never left it. On top of that, he thinks that other countries are “ripping us off because there are so many stupid people running our country.” Not likely that he will want to send them America’s treasure. Yet, there is a huge deficit in the gold supply, every year, that some not-so-mysterious entity is filling.

      In order to access the US gold reserve, permission from the Treasury Secretary is required, and in order to cover all subsequent prosecution-oriented possibilities, an executive order from the President is desirable. There is no doubt that Trump is going to reverse a vast majority of all Obama’s executive orders. It is almost unthinkable that his future Treasury Secretary will support pissing away America’s gold reserve. Remember, his biggest financial supporter (besides himself) is Robert Mercer, a billionaire who is a strong advocate of returning to a strict gold standard. His other supporters and advisers are ALL pro-gold standard oriented.

      That doesn’t mean we are going to go to the gold standard. Neither I nor Mr. Trump believe there is enough American-owned gold left in our gold reserves to make a return to the gold standard a viable proposition for America (which, perhaps, is why the statists pissed it away in their schemes). He will find out whether his suspicions are correct, after he takes office. Unless he is wrong, and the gold reserve is untouched, it is unlikely that the result of that inquiry will be publicly disclosed for many years. However, regardless of the result, he is not going to want to piss away more American gold, especially since realization of his plan to bring manufacturing back requires a somewhat weaker dollar than we are now seeing.

      At the same time, the action in the gold market is, intuitively, the opposite of what ought to be happening. Immense transient short positions have flooded the COMEX, a few hours after a surprise outcome in the election. It seems clear that this is a short-term oriented scramble to reduce prices. The conclusion, therefore, is that a number of big players are very frightened about the prospect that the US government will stop supplying gold to meet the world’s supply deficit and that the price will rise sharply. They want out of the short and medium term paper-based short positions they took, on the assumption that access to the gold reserve meant continued control over gold prices for years to come under Hillary Clinton.

      1. Avery,

        Couldn’t the drop in gold pricing also be due to the significant rise in bond prices, and resulting carrying costs for gold while inflation hasn’t yet picked up to the point that real interest rates as still negative?

        Mark

        1. Anything is possible. The question is whether it is probable. My opinion is that it is not likely, because of the way in which the price fall has proceeded. No doubt the rise in bond yields helped form a backdrop that facilitated the reaction, just as the prospective repatriation of Eurodollar deposits has helped support the manipulative activity surrounding the US dollar. However, a genuine decline, driven by a something like that, would present differently. It would cause a modest continuous reaction sending gold prices downward. Here, we saw automatic trading programs issuing huge quantities of transient short positions in ultra-short bursts of time, indicative of an intent to trigger stop-loss orders. It was a trading presentation that seems typical of a manipulative attack designed to quickly induce a long squeeze.

  4. Very insightful presentation, however the assumption remains that the general population will be allowed to transact in precious metals no matter what the price. I would submit that at some price point, most likely around 1900 the previous high, the government will institute capital controls and prohibit transactions in precious metals by the general population in the United States.

    They could come up with some explanation for capital controls like a national security interest or banking failure. They would not confiscate metal but merely prohibit transactions other than selling to a bank at yesterday’s price.

  5. Avery, this article is THE most important I have read all year. i am sitting in my office, stunned and trying to digest this situation. Just now, the news wires are FILLED with a possible Indian Ban on Gold Imports(Instant $200+ spot drop, “they” say). I would LOVE some feedback on any relationship between your thoughts, and India, if correlated.
    Also, somehow, Silver seems to be the “sleeping” giant in all of this. There is more silver tonnage than gold in reserves. What would stop a global entity from similar trysts with this industrial metal?
    So…hanging on to my physical bullion with passionate glee. The mining stocks are in for some turbulent times it seems.
    WHY these people do not form their own global “union”, so as to boycott paper market manipulation is beyond me. I understand they must pay their bills of course, and, the need for weekly sales to stay afloat, but, perhaps some short-term pain could lead to a new generation of stable market pricing, and, a future free of “magic”, which the dark forces use to play the field.
    I also just read about 70 bankers murdered in the last few years, all tied to the global derivative markets. Seems knowing “too much” can send you backwards out of a 3-story window to your death.
    Well, thank you for providing the most important news of 2016. Be careful in your wanderings my friend.

    1. An Indian ban on gold imports isn’t likely because Modi is a Hindu nationalist, and gold has religious significance in India. However, he might add to the import tax, or enact punitive laws forcing gold dealers to identify buyers in gold sales. That would have a mild effect on demand, but mostly it would simply result in more smuggling and non-reported gold sales.

  6. Why would the manipulators for decennia short gold? Why would they never want to go long? If Goldman Sachs, HSBC and others bought gold in 2015 while communicating bearish comments to the public, haven’t they bought enough gold then to want the price to go up now?

    What if Trump finds out that there is actually no gold in Fort Knox? Or let’s say less than what the Russians and Chinese have accumulated so far. He needs a far bigger pile than those two combined if he wishes to go to a gold standard, otherwise he can’t negotiate those 2 other super powers.

    1. The manipulators do go long, and do engage in upward price manipulation when doing so is more profitable and fits their plans more precisely. They just haven’t done it as often as downward manipulation, in the past few decades, because silencing the canary in the coal mine is government subsidized and risk-free, whereas increasing the volume of its chirp is not.

      When and if US gold reserve access is cut off, the more egregious downward manipulation (at least those that force prices below supply/demand equilibrium) will end. Upward price manipulation is actually easier (you don’t have to supply physical gold to back it up), and if they are not in jail, it is quite likely that the manipulator crowd will turn toward more upward manipulation. Prices could be artificially induced to travel far above the pricing points I’ve mentioned in the article. Then, they may come crashing down again, only to see the process rinsed and repeated. We saw that happen just before gold prices crashed in 1980. Indeed, financial crime in the form of upward gold price manipulation, back then, may have been the instigating factor behind the original support given by the government for downward price manipulation. To stop all this activity, both upward and downward, laws are needed to restrict leverage in futures markets.

      One key thing that is important to remember is that there is a dramatic difference between short term manipulation in the paper gold market and buying physical gold as a long-term investment. Although downward price manipulation has a long-term effect in getting conservative investors to avoid gold, this particular episode is short-term and self-limited. It is designed to facilitate an escape from what are essentially, in my opinion, government subsidized short positions that are about to lose the subsidy. The whole thing is likely to be over before the end of December or before. So, it has little to no effect on the type of long-term physical gold investment made by GS and HSBC. Indeed, if it is over well before the end of the quarter, the reduction in the value of their long-term gold investment won’t even show up on their balance sheet.

      As to a gold standard, Trump stated on the campaign trail that he would like to go to one, but doesn’t think it is possible. He shares my view that there is no longer enough unencumbered gold left in the US gold reserve to do so.

  7. Yesterday Marketwatch posted an article by Nigam Arora giving credence to rumors India may ban gold imports and that such a ban could precipitate a $200/oz drop in gold prices.

    Your thoughts?

    1. Rumors will always be circulated, especially at a time when panic is necessary for manipulators to achieve their goals. The origin of such rumors will be shrouded in darkness, and Mr. Arora may be entirely innocent in circulating it, although he seems to be talking his own book, after switching from long to short after the election. PM Modi is a Hindu nationalist and gold has religious significance to Hindus. A rise in tax… stiffer sales reporting requirements, maybe… although he would anger his supporters by doing either.

      A cutoff of gold imports entirely? Not very likely. However, even if it happened, and even if you further ignored the hundreds of tons that would arrive in India, anyway, via smuggling, the gap between world supply and demand is now larger than India’s consumption, when prices are under $1,200 per ounce. So, a cutoff of the US gold reserve still pushes prices above where they are now.

    2. MW is a complicit propaganda rag owned by DOW JONES. They are 100% involved in collusion. Disregard them OR do the opposite of what they suggest. Seriously. For example: just on Friday, Silver was going up steadily until the exact moment they put a hit piece out stating Silver was Bearish. Down it went…momentarily, due to investor reaction, then it came back up. Weekend passes, Asia open, Silver SKYROCKETS.
      F*ck, MW

  8. What do these various scenarios , poat-Jan 20 with regard to gold, mean to the DOW, SP500 —and bonds. Surely there must be some connectivity. I’m not smart enough to know how to do the dots.

  9. Ok, so what happens when the Federal Reserve and Bank of England want to execute on their liens to replenish their Gold stocks? Does the Fort Knox Gold get delivered them? The Fort Knox Gold is federal government property. Can the President give away government property via executive order? I thought an act of congress was needed for this.

  10. This is a damn fine piece of work Avery. I’m glad I found you. I’m going to buy your book on the strength of this piece alone!

    1. Compliments are always appreciated! So, thanks! After you finish reading it, don’t forget to share your enthusiasm by leaving a review at your book retailer’s website. With the Christmas gift-giving season fast approaching, a lot of good reviews will power high sales, and this will help spread the word about the pressing need for restoring honest money to international finance.

  11. Avery, your narrative is that hundred of tonnes of gold have already been delivered from the entities that own it and replaced by a lien on UST gold. As I understand it, such swaps are not sanctioned by the UST – which denies they even exist. Therefore the lien itself might not stand up in a court if there was a dispute, raising the question of risk to the lien holder. Cam you explain?

    1. U.S. Treasury Department documents DO reveal that U.S. government gold has been loaned to bullion banks or swapped with other governments to suppress gold’s market price. See, http://www.gata.org/node/5637 Whether or not the liens would hold up if subjected to a court fight is another issue.

  12. Avery, what about silver’s role in all this? I watch the gold to silver ratio which has been falling since late 2015 but recently it is now correcting upward along with the corrective move in the whole precious metal sector. I have been accumulating silver in anticipation of trading it for gold when the ratio falls back toward the mean or possibly below. Please give me your thoughts on this. TIA

    1. Silver is heavily cross-traded on futures markets with gold. As long as that remains the case, there will be a strong correlation between the two metals. It is, however, more volatile because silver is a much smaller market. It tends to follow gold, with some lag time, wherever the yellow metal leads, subject to certain caveats. Unlike gold, which is mostly mined in operations dedicated to the yellow metal, 70% of the silver supply comes as a byproduct of base metal mining. If zinc, copper, lead, etc. mines expand production, silver production rises, increasing supply, and when base metal mining activity declines, silver supplies go down. Interestingly, demand for silver often goes up when base metal mining goes down because a decline in industrial metals production normally means economic problems, and the white metal is viewed by many as a quasi-safe haven in bad times. That is a factor that causes silver to rise faster than gold on the upside, and vice versa.

  13. Thanks!! I am happy to see your confirmation of my view that chart technicals matter only if the Banksters decide to use them as cover for their price manipulation. I focus on Jim Sinclair’s trading approach, loosely paraphrased as sell (a little) when prices are rocketing higher (like a rhino horn pointed up) and buy a lot when prices drop fast (like the fishing pole line when fishing down off a pier). I also temper that approach by looking for highs near the third week of each month before gold or silver delivery (before the Bankster bash preceding options expiration), and for lows the end of those months (or a few days later after the Bankster purge into notices to take delivery).

    Your article focuses on gold and the probable supply by the FED and Treasury to the Banksters. You may also want to comment on silver, which no longer has any significant source of supply other than the unlimited dumping of paper contracts by the Banksters. My guess is that Russia and China are well aware that the Banksters naked paper shorts are very vulnerable to a short squeeze, but are not doing that because they can continue to add to their gold holdings at a low cost. When Russia and China decide they have enough gold and want to end the game, they need only to reallocate their physical purchases from gold to silver. The resulting Bankster implosion would bring down the entire financial network of the West.

    I will publish a link to this web page and my comment above in the viewpoint section of my web page below:

    http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/viewpoint.html

  14. Wonderful piece here. Will be curious to see how things unfold. Just going to continue to add as possible. Thanks

  15. Great perspective. What effect does Trump’s pick of Mnuchin for SoT
    have on your theory of manipulation? Thank you.

    1. It doesn’t change anything. I am confident that the gold reserves are going to be closed fairly quickly, once Trump gets sworn in. That means that further downward manipulation, at least at price levels, as now, where supply doesn’t equal demand, are going to become impossible. They will have to at least allow prices to rise above the supply/demand equilibrium level.

      Theoretically, then, they will be able to begin manipulating again because they won’t need physical gold. However, there is still a disincentive. The banksters hate risk (contrary to popular belief). They like risk-free trades, either back-stopped by the government directly, as in gold, or which arise out of inside information through connections to the Fed and US Treasury. That’s because their demand models can end up being wrong, especially because demand levels can change unexpectedly. That can be far more devastating with gold because the physical stuff they must deliver is in limited supply, as compared with fiat currencies and most other things, which can be infinitely increased at the press of a central banker’s button.

      Gold demand is subject to unexpected huge swings, especially on the upside, given the unstable world situation. If they get it wrong, and pick the wrong supply/demand equilibrium to manipulate around, they will lose a fortune. So, if they manipulate after the gold reserve is closed, most of it will be upside manipulation.

  16. I realize you have no desire to turn this blog of valuable information into any type of investment advisory prediction service. Having said that, according to your comments, a ‘fair value’ price for gold is presently estimated to be somewhere between $1500-1600/oz. Theoretically it could be also be much higher depending on other factors which you have outlined. By your same measurements, is there any estimate of a floor price for gold, beyond which it cannot be manipulated any further to the downside? Many forecasts are now saying the price may be headed below 1000; one is predicting 700, yet another 425. I see this as problematic for any new buyers
    looking to get in at bargain prices as the pattern for bull markets is to fool the majority. Then again, maybe not since we seem to be living in an age of central bank omnipotence. Look at today’s move in the DJIA. Appreciate any thoughts you might have on this subject. Thank you.

  17. Good Book. So in the sequel to Synod, Is Navarro going to try and expand his influence into China and Russia 🙂 A movie on this book would be Great.

    Do we have any data on how much physical gold is held by each country in the world ?
    Also is there any possibility of reverting back to gold standard ?
    And how about some articles on Bitcoins ? I heard that the TechSters (counterpart of BankSters) can fix the bitcoin too.

    1. I’m glad you enjoyed “The Synod”! Don’t forget to share your enthusiasm by writing a short comment and rating the book 5 stars on the book retailer’s website, like on Amazon.com, for example. That encourages new readers, including the general public who know nothing about gold but need to be enlightened. Thanks!!

      There is a lot of data on the amount of physical gold that is, supposedly, held by each country. The IMF, among others, collects such data. However, with the repeated covert operations, I’m afraid most of the official numbers are worthless. There is clearly much less gold in official western gold reserves than they are listing. In contrast, China and Russia probably both have more gold than they admit to. America probably still has a few thousand tons left, but a few thousand may be encumbered by liens, and would need to be bought back from the market to restore our gold reserve to its official number.

      I wish I felt competent to comment on bitcoin, but I don’t. I don’t pay much attention to it.

  18. So the hypothesis that they needed a covert government supply of gold to meet physical demand and keep the price suppressed over the last 5 years makes intuitive sense to me… but they also suppressed the price of silver. Now I know that silver and gold paper prices are correlated but since they don’t have a matching supply of covert physical silver to bring to the market wouldn’t that correlation break?
    In fact… doesn’t the suppression of the silver price prove that it is possible to keep a paper market suppressed without needing any extra physical supplies at all?

    1. More than 70% of the world’s silver production is as a byproduct of copper, lead and other base metal production. Meanwhile, a lot of industrial use has come down in key areas since the fall in oil prices, namely solar, and also in electronics.

      I know this is not going to be well-received by fans of silver, but at the moment, the same type of shortage of silver just does not exist yet. The difference between supply and demand is not that big yet in silver because so much industrial silver has been freed up. Base metal production has not been reduced, but has risen along with silver production. Meanwhile, the reduction in industrial demand has freed up some silver for investor use.

      When catastrophe is perceived as being ahead, people first turn to gold, as we’ve seen in the UK. This is partly due to the fact that most countries, other than the USA, heavily tax silver sales transactions. They do not generally apply sales or VAT to gold bullion. If silver demand rises, however, which it will as an alternative, as gold prices rise, the price of silver will rise suddenly and dramatically, probably faster than gold.

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