JP Morgan Silver Manipulation Lawsuit Revived By Appeals Court!

On June 29, 2016, US District Court Judge Paul Engelmayer dismissed a lawsuit against JP Morgan Chase & Co. which alleged that the bank had engaged in extensive manipulation of the price of silver, in violation of both state and federal  antitrust laws. The plaintiffs appealed. On February 1, 2017, the US Appeals Court for the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals held that their complaint contained sufficient factual matter, accepted as true, to state a claim to relief that is plausible on its face. This reverses the lower court and revives the lawsuit.
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In other words, JP Morgan is now back on the “hot seat”. The most important result of this important decision is that the bank will be forced to face the process of “discovery”. Lawyers have a number of tools with which to ferret out the truth. JPM will face interrogatories, subpoenas, depositions and requests for documents. That means internal documents will be pried open.

Is JP Morgan the sole entity responsible for silver price manipulation? We don’t know that. Furthermore, our system of law and justice tells us that everyone, even mega corporations, are innocent until proven guilty. That having been said, the evidence that both the gold and silver market is being heavily manipulated is very strong.  A lot of fingers have pointed to JP Morgan but, in my view, much more than one bank is responsible. There are a number of other banks that are already being sued in other lawsuits.

The results of discovery may further implicate other banks and brokerage houses. It could make it possible to extract trading information from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which improperly closed its own investigation of silver trading. The same issues are now being investigated by private sector lawyers who have no interest in cashing in on the possibility of future employment with the bank.  Maybe, this will help to drain the swamp.
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You can read the appellate court decision, in its entirety, by clicking the link below.
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The Synod is a conspiracy of 8 large international banks who seek to control gold, stock, bond and commodity markets all over the world. Jack Severs runs for his life when he learns too much, as the most sophisticated surveillance system ever built is deployed to track him down. As the ever-tightening noose closes, he struggles to uncover evidence to save himself and his world from collapsing! An exciting, fictional, fun and educational thriller about the banking cartel. Learn about the methods used to manage the price of gold and every other market on the planet, and how this affects business, politics and daily life in both the fictional and real worlds.

A GREAT GIFT!

COMEX PHYSICAL GOLD DELIVERIES RISE 729% YEAR OVER YEAR!

Written by:  Avery B. Goodman  (01/29/2017)

The price of gold has been generally following the predictions I made on December 9, 2016.  So far, so good…

A lot of non-connected hedge funds and other speculators are now heavily short gold. That includes many people who are writing negative comments about the metal, and paying others to write negatively.  They have been drawn in by entities who know better, and who are heavily connected to the US Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, etc. The latter have likely closed most of their unhedged short positions even as the speculators have increased theirs.

The well-connected have known the gold jig is up for a very long time. They have engaged in what appears to be an attempt at a very organized and deliberate position change. A number of big banks, such as J.P. Morgan, HSBC, Goldman Sachs and others, for example, made huge purchases of gold bullion banker’s bars. They still have big problems from their past activities, but not so much on futures and forwards markets. The remaining problem comes in the form of a huge uncovered “short” position via massive tonnages of  gold inside London-based “unallocated storage” schemes.  It is possible that the unveiling of the new so-called COMEX “spot” silver and gold contract, as well as the huge physical gold purchases by big banks has been designed to shift this remaining risk.

The temporary downturn in gold prices, last week, is meaningless. It seems quite clearly to have been orchestrated by a few big options sellers. These smarmy folks always use automated trading software, around options expiration week, to trigger stop-loss orders and margin calls. It is done to temporarily push down paper gold prices, for the purpose of avoiding payouts on call options. Generally speaking, gold speculators buy many more gold calls than puts, so paying out on a rise in gold prices usually costs a great deal more than paying out after a fall in gold prices. The incentive to manipulate prices to prevent options from ending “in the money” is huge.

COMEX February options expiration day was the 26th of January, and it was the day of reckoning when buyer and seller determined how much, if anything, was owed on the matured options contracts. It is also my understanding that many of the privately negotiated “calls” at the various London’s LBMA member banks expired on the 27th. If the options dealers had not launched a coordinated attack on gold prices last week, a huge number of their “call” options would have expired heavily “in the money”. That would have meant billions paid out. Naturally, since casinos always make sure that the house never loses, the payouts won’t happen, thanks to the manipulations.

The most important thing to realize is that price manipulations, around options expiration, are always pure paper plays, and have no legs. However, they won’t end simply because access to the US gold reserve is cut off.  Such activities will continue until gold options are made illegal, or the people responsible are criminally prosecuted. A change in Presidential administrations may bring a lot of macro-level reform, including replacement of the people at the very top of the totem pole. However, regulatory staff members remain the same, as do the attorneys who work for the Department of Justice. So long as men and women continue to enter and exit federal agencies through a revolving employment and “consulting” door, into banks and brokerage houses, no serious prosecution is ever going to happen.

Far more important than the temporary manipulation of options dealers, however, is the physical market for real gold. January is an off-month for deliveries at COMEX. However, the number of gold futures contracts that stood for delivery this month resembles an active delivery month. That is interesting because COMEX has always been primarily a paper based exchange. Physical delivery is the exception rather than the rule. Delivery has always been theoretically possible, but it has been rarely done. In January 2016, for example, the holders of only 172 COMEX futures contracts demanded physical gold. In comparison, by January 27, 2017, the holders of 1,254 COMEX futures contracts held them to maturity and demanded their gold! That is a whopping 729% increase yoy!

We’ll see what happens in February. There are already an unusually large number of February contracts remaining open on Friday, a day before the first notice day. Monday is the first notice day for the February delivery month, which has always been a major one. This month is shaping up to be mildly historic in size. The overall delivery size looks like it will be at least as big as December, 2016, even though December is normally the largest delivery month by far. One thing is clear. As of Monday morning, holders of matured futures contracts are going to have to put up or shut up. They must either deposit sufficient cash to pay for the gold in full, or face involuntary liquidation.

No matter how massive the physical delivery demand may be, there is always the possibility that dealers will try to attack prices early in the month. They often do this. I believe that the reason revolves around the desire to buy physical gold bullion, from mining companies and others, at a rock-bottom price. They will do everything they can to create a fake price so long as it doesn’t cost them too much. The trouble for them is that, this month, it may cost them more to do it than they save from the results.

There always seem to be a number of “stragglers” among the contracts that are open on the first day of delivery. These speculators cannot afford to pay for their gold, but seem to foolishly hold onto their contracts anyway. They end up involuntarily liquidated and that process will always facilitate downward price manipulation. Because of the prospective size of February’s physical delivery (which is probably mirrored at the LBMA in London), however, gold prices should be resilient to this type of manipulative activity.

I think the rise in gold prices will begin, in earnest, somewhat earlier than usual this month. It should occur, at the latest, by the middle of the month, or even a lot earlier, as opposed to the typical late-in-the-month price rise that often occurs during big delivery months. The massive and very unusual physical demand in January is likely to have exhausted many of most easily accessed supplies, which will make it particiularly difficult for banksters to maintain such shenanigans.

Looking further out, as I have said before, other precious metals prices in 2017 will also be driven upward, by being cross traded with gold, as a result of the closure of the US gold reserve. A vast majority of the people surrounding President Donald Trump are not inclined to allow continued drainage of America’s golden treasure. Incoming Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has given lip service to the “strong” dollar policy, but both he and President Trump have stated that the US dollar is now overvalued. The impact of lower exports and higher imports on GDP has already showed up in dismal GDP performance numbers.

Political cooperation with bankster driven gold price manipulation has always been primarily driven by a desire to stabilize and/or prop up the exchange value of the US dollar. Since America’s leaders now want the dollar down, not up, giving access to the US gold reserve makes no sense. It will be cut off as soon as Obama’s gold-related executive orders come to Mr. Trump’s attention. That should happen a few days after the new Treasury Secretary is confirmed.  I have no doubt that the dealers are acutely aware of the fact that Obama’s not-so-secret orders, opening up the gold reserve to gold location swaps and other access, are now history. Downward price manipulation, at the current low pricing point, will become difficult or impossible. In the absence of the US Gold Reserve, prices must rise substantially before highly profitable manipulative activity can begin again.

The reversal of Obama’s executive orders are likely to be as much of a secret as the executive orders themselves were. I don’t expect any formal announcement as such. When it does finally happen, however, there should be a sudden price surge. That doesn’t mean gold is suddenly going to rise to $5,000+ per ounce. That will eventually happen. However, normal markets do not rise like rocketships. Prices may rise by $75 to $100 over a week or two. That is healthier than a massive $300 overnight skyrocket. Massive quick increases in any asset price, in the absence of some unusual major outside event, is the result of upside oriented market manipulation.

We will eventually see a lot of upside manipulation in gold prices (followed by repeated short price collapses) as manipulators turn their attention to profiting, in a different manner, from price volatility. The key point is that when gold prices finally move above the equilibrium point between supply and demand, they can be pushed upward, and then allowed to fall, without any need for physical gold. Until that change in orientation, however, we will see prices driven upward solely by the continuing excess of physical buyers over sellers.

Note that physical precious metals buyers, unlike futures market speculators, are thrifty people who don’t like overpaying. This won’t stop the early stages of a fast price rise, but it will begin to put downward price pressure, in the short run, if prices go too far too fast. Physical buyers stop buying when prices rise very fast. They will resist purchasing until they get used to new prices. The process requires time. That’s why gold price destabilization, rather than price suppression, is the primary goal of gold market manipulators. I expect the price of gold to rise slowly but steadily back to its prior supply/demand equilibrium point (somewhere between $1,500 and $1,600 or a bit higher).

If major upside manipulation events begin or a major outside event occurs, like a major default on corporate and government bonds, widespread insolvency of pension plans and/or the demise of the Euro currency, the sky will be the limit. Evidence of fiat currency instability will be so high, once the Eurozone collapses, that a much higher floor will be put underneath precious metal pricing.

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Buy Synod“It moves fast, kind of like Robert Ludlum’s “Jason Bourne” trilogy…”

–  Josh Pullman –

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The Synod is a conspiracy of 8 large international banks who seek to control gold, stock, bond and commodity markets all over the world. Jack Severs runs for his life when he learns too much, as the most sophisticated surveillance system ever built is deployed to track him down. As the ever-tightening noose closes, he struggles to uncover evidence to save himself and his world from collapsing! An exciting, fictional, fun and educational thriller about the banking cartel. Learn about the methods used to manage the price of gold and every other market on the planet, and how this affects business, politics and daily life in both the fictional and real worlds.

A GREAT GIFT!

 

WILL INDIA REALLY HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON GOLD PRICES IN 2017?

Written by: Avery B. Goodman

There seems to be some new, seemingly crazy, action by the PM Modi administration in India every day. Last month, for example, they capriciously demonetized the primary forms of cash used commercial transactions in India. It was a stupid thing to do. At the least, it was carried out in a very incompetent manner. It led to chaos, as banks and citizens ran out of cash. Some truckers were even unable to find sufficient cash to pay for fuel and had to abandon deliveries. It was a bit crazy… and economists now expect the demonetization of 86% of India’s money supply to cost several GDP percentage points. Not the smartest way to a run a country. Certainly not a wise method of developing one.

Once someone gets a bad reputation, like that, it is easy for people to believe the worst about him. Whether he deserves it or not, Indian PM Modi has gained the reputation of a madman, or a fool in some western business circles. Naturally, therefore, that has made it easier to plant stories in the business news media hyping up some additional alleged madness. The Indian Finance Ministry, in a show of determination, stated on December 1st that new rules would require that gold be purchased out of income disclosed on prior tax returns, or using exempt income that isn’t taxable (like agricultural income), or using reasonable household savings, or must be “legally inherited from explained sources.”

Contrary to the hype, the supposedly “new” rules actually change nothing. No doubt, the Indian government will become more aggressive in enforcing the law. However, the “new” rules are merely a restatement of old rules that already existed. It has never been legal to defraud the Indian government of taxes. It has never been legal to buy assets, be it gold or anything else, with the proceeds of tax fraud. The newly announced rules are essentially a “press release”, a public relations notice, designed to appeal to less wealthy Indians, who have long been irritated by the ostentatious displays of wealthier neighbors.

In truth, the Indian government has added protection that didn’t exist before. For example, each married woman is protected from being required to show how she managed to get up to 1/2 kilo of gold, worth about $18,000. That’s a huge amount of money in India. Each unmarried woman has the right to not be questioned about up to 1/4 kilo or $9,000 worth of gold, also a huge amount for the country. Each man has the right to keep up to 1/10th kilo or about $3,600 worth. No questions will be asked about such amounts, even if the stuff really was bought with black money. On top of that, an unlimited amount of inherited gold can be kept, free and clear, and tax policemen now have the discretion to “look the other way” at even higher amounts.

Obviously, the Modi government cannot hope to win reelection if it terrorizes the whole Indian population. Even if it wanted to do that, India’s constitutional protection against illegal search and seizure, while not as strong as in the USA, is still substantial. The government does not have an unfettered right to invade people’s homes, businesses and safe deposit boxes simply because it wants to. It faces the same problem as tax authorities in the USA and elsewhere. It must justify such a search and obtain a warrant in all but the most unusual situations.

Indian law can be summarized as follows:

“Legislative intrusion [into the right of privacy in India – AG] must be tested on the touchstone of reasonableness as guaranteed by the Constitution and for that purpose the Court can go into proportionality of the intrusion vis-à-vis the purpose sought to be achieved. (2) So far as administrative or executive action is concerned it has to be reasonable having regard to the facts and circumstances of the case. (3) As to judicial warrants, the Court must have sufficient reason to believe that the search or seizure is warranted and it must keep in mind the extent of search or seizure necessary for protection of the particular State interest. In addition, as stated earlier, common law did recognise rare exceptions for conduct of warrantless searches could be conducted but these had to be in good faith, intended to preserve evidence or intended to prevent sudden anger to person or property.”

Under Indian law, like that of the United States, people are deemed innocent until proven guilty.  The state must prove that black money was used to buy gold before it can be permanently seized. Don’t get me wrong. I have little doubt that Indian tax police will target and be unfair toward certain people, especially ostentacious rich ones who support the opposition. It will also target businesses that are washing demonetized notes, especially those exchanging them for gold. But although the flamboyantly rich, and black market traders, buy what seems like ridiculously large quantities of gold, the vast majority of gold demand comes from tens of millions of average middle class people. The government won’t be bothering them. It also won’t be bothering rural farmers who purchase about a third of the gold imported into India each year. I might add that the income of the farmers is agricultural income and exempt from tax.

Indian tax authorities have always sought warrants to search and seize gold from targeted people. It has been doing that for decades. For example, all the way back in 1996, under the now-opposition Congress Party, it seized 28 kg. worth of gold, allegedly purchased with black money acquired through bribery. The gold bars were in possession of the ostentatious widow of the late Tamil Nadu chief minister J Jayalalithaa at the time of seizure. The case is still pending in the very slow Indian court system.

The idea that the Indian government will terrorize a lot of middle class Indian families, looking for illicit gold, is ridiculous. The announcement is being intentionally used for its shock value and has been deliberately misconstrued. Remember, misinformation is one of the most powerful tools used during major market manipulation events. Misinformation can and is used to panic people, especially over-leveraged gamblers. If they swallow the nonsense, and it appears gamblers in NYC and London are swallowing it right now, the open interest in gold derivatives can be reduced at a minimal cost. That lowers the exposure of casino banksters to higher gold prices.

Once you look at the what is really going on, you see a very different picture from the one that is hyped by naive western speculators who spread the stories, and the manipulators who invent them. In truth, India recently scrapped disruptive requirements that required 20% of all imported gold to be re-exported. According to a highly placed Reuters’ source, they will scrap other gold import limitations next week. It will soon be considerably easier to import gold into India. If not for the demonetization that reduced the money to buy with, demand would immediately rise. As it is, demand will still rise, though it may fall marginally in the short term. Let’s face it, after the recent actions of the Indian government, few law abiding (or non-law-abiding) people are going to be saving rupees.

It is important to take the trouble to carefully calculate the true Chinese gold demand, because once you do that, everything becomes crystal clear. You need to correct for the intentional or unintentional, but nevertheless massive, multiple under-count errors made by GFMS. Once you do the numbers, you’ll find that the end result is a huge gap between worldwide gold demand and supply. It is so large, in fact, that not even the complete elimination of the 800 tons of gold that India might normally be expected to buy this year, would fill it.

In other words, even if India somehow didn’t buy one more ounce of the yellow metal, there would still be an unfilled gap of nearly 1,000 tons at prices below $1,200 per troy ounce. Notably, this demand calculation does not include the possibility of increased demand for gold in Turkey. Its citizens have just been instructed by their President Erdogan to “buy gold and lira”, not foreign currencies. The numbers also exclude next year’s probable increase in Islamic gold demand now that the “Shariah gold standard” has finally been set. No consideration is also given to the probability that instability in Europe, especially due to the upcoming election in France, could massively increase demand in that nation.

Gold prices will begin to climb sharply once the current manipulation event runs its course. An objective look at the real numbers makes it clear that some entity has filled a huge and growing supply gap for at least 4 years running. That not-so-mysterious entity, in all probability, is the US Treasury, which is accomplishing it mostly through arrangements with the Bank of England. There is little question that very large swap liens, taken against gold reserves held at Fort Knox, have been deployed to fill the gap.

Things are changing. First of all, even if the willingness to piss away America’s gold were still there, at the current burn rate, the entire gold reserve will be gone within a maximum of 2-3 years. However, the new Trump government includes several highly placed gold standard supporters, most notably the man who is shaping up to be the single most powerful influence on President-elect Donald J. Trump, Vice President-elect Mike Pence. The speed by which casino bankers lose unfettered access to America’s gold will be based primarily on how fast Trump can reverse the Obama era executive orders.

The quasi-secret order, allowing access to America’s gold reserves, was probably signed on April 11, 2013. As soon as they get to it, it will be reversed. The Obama era, during which our golden treasure was foolishly pissed away in profit-making schemes, concocted by NYC and London banksters, is now over. That is the fact that will dominate pricing in 2017 and beyond, not whether India changes its gold imports by a few 100 tons of gold, more or less. It is impossible to know the exact bottom in a market manipulation. However, now or soon is the time to buy, not sell. For a more detailed explanation of what is happening with respect to the Trump administration and our gold reserves, click here.

Buy Synod“It moves fast, kind of like Robert Ludlum’s “Jason Bourne” trilogy…”

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The Synod is a conspiracy of 8 large international banks who seek to control gold, stock, bond and commodity markets all over the world. Jack Severs runs for his life when he learns too much, as the most sophisticated surveillance system ever built is deployed to track him down. As the ever-tightening noose closes, he struggles to uncover evidence to save himself and his world from collapsing! An exciting, fictional, fun and educational thriller about the banking cartel. Learn about the methods used to manage the price of gold and every other market on the planet, and how this affects business, politics and daily life in both the fictional and real worlds.

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Pennsylvania State Department: “Stein missed recount deadline”!

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Written by: Avery B. Goodman

Jill Stein and her supporters (George Soros?) thought they were all set, ready to bring question on the legitimacy of Donald J. Trump’s new Presidential administration. She was to serve as Hillary Clinton’s new public “avatar”, standing in for the Democratic nominee. She piled up the cash, obtaining nearly $7 million dollars, probably from Hillary Clinton supporters.

There was just one thing missing… careful attention to the calendar.

According to the Pennsylvania State Department, she missed the deadline to file for a recount! This error is fatal to any hope of disrupting the peaceful transition of power. Now, even in the unlikely event that the recounts in Wisconsin and Michigan come out in Hillary’s favor, there will be no way to overturn the result. Pennsylvania, alone, brings with it a sufficient number of electoral votes to make Trump President.

It’s over, folks. Does that mean she’ll give back the money? Doubtful. People expect to be paid when they engage in acts designed to disrupt society. No doubt, she’ll find an excuse to keep the dough!  However, we shall see…

DEBUNKING THE MYTH OF THE “P/E RATIO”

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Written By:  Avery B. Goodman

Summary

The Price/Earnings Ratio is touted as a means of predicting stock price movement.

The Price/Earnings Ratio Has No Value in Predicting Future Stock Movement.

A stock price crash may be coming but the currently inflated S&P 500 P/E Ratio is meaningless.

The price/earnings ratio, or “P/E ratio”, is the current price of one share divided by the earnings per share of the company. Over the years, a lot of financial advisors and market gurus have pointed to this number as a method by which to determine whether a company’s share price will rise or fall. Others look at the P/E ratio as a way to determine whether stock indexes are susceptible to a big downturn.

If the ratio is low, some claim that a company’s stock valuation is “safe” and share prices are likely to rise. In contrast, if the ratio is high, they say share prices are likely to fall. That seems simple and intuitively sound doesn’t it? A nice simple idea like that always excites people. Other gurus decided to expand on it. They applied the idea to the broad indexes of stocks, coming up with a P/E ratio for the broad stock market, most often using the S&P 500. According to them, if the ratio of the S&P 500 is “dangerously high”, stock prices are “susceptible to a bear market.” Conversely, when ratios are low, they believe that the market will rise.

Unfortunately, it isn’t true.

The interest rate manipulations of a central bank are far more important than any other factor in a myriad of ways, even beyond the subject of stocks and economics. When people asked me how I knew that Donald Trump would be the next U.S. President a week before the election, for example, I answered by writing an article, and explaining that my insight came purely from observing gold price manipulation. If you want to learn how this works, read the novel “The Synod”.

At any rate, I made offhand mention of the fact that the Obama administration has helped create the biggest financial bubble in history. It triggered an unhappy comment from a stock-loving reader, who assumed I was talking about an impending crash in stock prices. I was actually talking about the bond market, which has a value several orders of magnitude larger than the stock market.

However, his comment raised some issues that beg clarification. The commenter insisted that stocks cannot crash because the S&P 500’s current P/E ratio is not historically high. At slightly over 25 to 1, he is wrong. It is historically high. It is simply not inside astronomical territory. But, it is a bit on the high side. History tells us that crashes don’t need to be preceded by astronomical P/E ratios.

Thankfully, for current stock investors, generally speaking, P/E ratios don’t matter much to future bull or bear trends. The ratio is most useful for evaluating the ability of a company to pay a dividend and for nothing else. That doesn’t mean stocks aren’t about to crash. It simply means that a modestly high or low P/E ratio has no predictive ability, whatsoever, when it comes to the future of stock prices. It never has. Never once! Just the opposite!

For example, the decline in stock prices at the beginning of the so-called “Great Recession” began in Fall of 2007. The S&P 500 P/E ratio was only a bit over 19 to 1! By January 2009, one year and four months later, stocks declined a lot. In spite of that, the P/E ratio had still risen to about 71! That’s when the fastest decline began (between January and mid-March 2009).

The key point is that the 71 to 1 ratio in January 2009 was not a result of rising stock values. It occurred because most investors fell behind the curve. They hadn’t dumped stocks vigorously enough to force prices down all the way yet. Earnings had simply fallen faster than stock prices, but stock prices were already in a bear market!

When the dot.com bubble started to burst, back in March, 2000, the S&P 500’s P/E ratio was a bit over 28 to 1. By August 2003, in spite of stocks having dropped by a huge amount, the P/E ratio was still 26.57. Again, investors fell behind the price drop. Another classic example was at the beginning of the Great Depression of the 1930s. In the late 1920s, the Federal Reserve flooded dollars into the economy to assist the British central bank in managing a floundering post-war British pound. With a massive increase in the money supply, American business artificially boomed.

The so-called “Roaring 20s” were an era in which earnings and dividend payments increased quickly. Every investment seemed to pay off. Stock prices followed but not in excess of the rise in company earnings. Like today, people dreamed about getting rich quick trading stocks. Earnings were so good that by January 1929, the S&P 500 P/E ratio was only a bit under 17.76. That was in spite of skyrocketing stock prices.

By October, 1929, however, the P/E ratio still stood at 17.83. By February 1933, when stock prices had finally fallen to about 10% of their value in 1929, the S&P 500 P/E ratio was 14.88! Here is the bottom line… in spite of the 90% decline in stock prices, the P/E was not very different from when prices were 900% higher!

What does that tell you, my friends? Many may be wondering how this could be possible? Most of your adult life, or at least that part of it in which you’ve been listening to the propaganda from talking heads, University Professors, and business media writers, you’ve always been told that P/E ratios matter.

They do matter, just not to whether a stock is about to go up or down. They matter with respect to the ability of a company to pay you a certain level of dividends. With respect to everything else, forget all P/E ratios. In a perfect world conceived in unrealistic economic theory, the P/E ratio might matter. It just doesn’t matter in our world.

That’s because in a stable economy, earnings would be a measure of how well run a company is. But, we don’t have an economy like that. What we have are central banks who determine bull and bear markets, by flooding money in and out of financial markets. The efficiency of company management is a factor, but a small one, when you compare it to the overall financial conditions created by this central banking manipulative activity. That’s why, in our world, the P/E ratio has no predictive value.

In the real world, earnings react to the money supply just like stock prices. When the money supply goes up, and interest rates go down, earnings go up and so do stock prices. The situation ends up artificial and temporary but that is what happens. You can complain about it all you want. You should complain and try to change things. But, for now, it’s as simple as that.

That’s why P/E ratios cannot predict individual share prices in the future. It is also why they certainly cannot predict whether or not a bull or bear market is on the way. Remember, again, that the earnings of all companies ALWAYS go up when a central bank increases the money supply. That’s got nothing to do with the quality of the management team in any one company, or all the companies listed on the S&P 500 index.

The decisions of the central bank and the government are the primary things that determine whether stock prices crash or continue upward, but there are a few relevant questions you can ask. Once a lot of money has been printed, is the central bank going to significantly raise rates? Will they constrain liquidity? Will they narrow the loan windows from which banks can loan hedge funds and other speculators money? If so, there will be a crash.

How big the crash will be is determined by how big the preceding bubble was. But, if they never raise rates, constrain liquidity or close loan windows, the ultimate result will be a collapse of the currency itself. To keep a boom going you not only can’t significantly raise interest rates, but you’ve got to keep the money spigot open and flowing. The amount of time it takes to collapse is primarily determined by how clever and believable the countering propaganda is.

In practical terms, going forward, if the Federal Reserve allows interest rates to rise significantly, it won’t matter whether the S&P 500’s P/E ratio is high or low. Earnings will fall, and the P/E ratios will rise unless stock prices drop (which they will). The current P/E ratio will have nothing to do with that.

Don’t get me wrong. What I have just told you doesn’t mean stock prices are about to crash. It just means that you should not be relying on P/E ratio’s to determine whether there is “froth on the stock bubble”, as some pundits like to put it. Current P/E ratios have NO VALUE in predicting future P/E ratios and, therefore, no value in predicting price movement.

The fact that P/E ratios are not in the stratosphere, right now, will do nothing to stop or slow down a potential stock price crash. That’s why, in my opinion, the safest bet, right now, is not general stock investment at all, but rather precious metals and mining companies. I don’t come to this conclusion based on P/E ratios, but on the probability that the Federal Reserve will be raising interest rates, and the fact that there is an insufficient quantity of gold to supply the market, as explained in more detail here.

History tells us that it is more likely that stocks will decline if P/E ratios are astronomically high and prices have already been heading down. But, almost all major stock market crashes including the Crash of 1929, the dot.com Crash of 2000, and the “Great Recession Crash of 2007 – 09” BEGIN with very modest S&P 500 P/E ratios. Therefore, be careful to evaluate the future based based on what the central bank does, not on P/E ratios.

Appended, below, is a list of the S&P 500’s P/E ratio at all points discussed in this article.

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Buy SynodBREAKING NEWS!! “The Synod” has pierced the “Top 100 Financial Thriller Bestsellers” list at Amazon.com!

The Synod is a conspiracy of 8 large international banks who seek to control gold, stock, bond and commodity markets all over the world. Jack Severs runs for his life when he learns too much, as the most sophisticated surveillance system ever built is deployed to track him down. As the ever-tightening noose closes, he struggles to uncover evidence to save himself and his world from collapsing! An exciting, fictional, fun and educational thriller about the banking cartel. Learn about the methods used to manage the price of gold and every other market on the planet, and how this affects business, politics and daily life in both the fictional and real worlds.

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PRICE/EARNINGS RATIO OF THE S&P 500 INDEX STOCKS
(Source: Schiller, Robert “Irrational Exuberance”
http://amzn.to/2fQ4kOV)

Date                  Value

11-25-16              25.46  (estimate)

Oct 1, 2016          24.53

Sep 1, 2016         24.82

Aug 1, 2016         24.98

Jul 1, 2016            24.72

Jun 1, 2016          23.97

May 1, 2016        23.81

Apr 1, 2016          23.97

Mar 1, 2016         23.39

Feb 1, 2016         22.02

Jan 1, 2016          22.18

Dec 1, 2015         23.74

Nov 1, 2015         23.67

Oct 1, 2015          22.68

Sep 1, 2015         21.45

Aug 1, 2015         22.15

Jul 1, 2015            22.40

Jun 1, 2015          22.12

May 1, 2015        21.92

Apr 1, 2015          21.42

Mar 1, 2015         20.96

Feb 1, 2015         20.77

Jan 1, 2015          20.02

Dec 1, 2014         20.08

Nov 1, 2014         19.75

Oct 1, 2014          18.50

Sep 1, 2014         18.81

Aug 1, 2014         18.68

Jul 1, 2014            18.96

Jun 1, 2014          18.88

May 1, 2014        18.46

Apr 1, 2014          18.35

Mar 1, 2014         18.48

Feb 1, 2014         18.06

Jan 1, 2014          18.15

Dec 1, 2013         18.04

Nov 1, 2013         18.15

Oct 1, 2013          17.86

Sep 1, 2013         17.88

Aug 1, 2013         17.91

Jul 1, 2013            18.12

Jun 1, 2013          17.80

May 1, 2013        18.25

Apr 1, 2013          17.69

Mar 1, 2013         17.68

Feb 1, 2013         17.32

Jan 1, 2013          17.03

Dec 1, 2012         16.44

Nov 1, 2012         16.12

Oct 1, 2012          16.62

Sep 1, 2012         16.69

Aug 1, 2012         16.14

Jul 1, 2012            15.55

Jun 1, 2012          15.05

May 1, 2012        15.22

Apr 1, 2012          15.70

Mar 1, 2012         15.69

Feb 1, 2012         15.37

Jan 1, 2012          14.87

Dec 1, 2011         14.30

Nov 1, 2011         14.10

Oct 1, 2011          13.88

Sep 1, 2011         13.50

Aug 1, 2011         13.79

Jul 1, 2011            15.61

Jun 1, 2011          15.35

May 1, 2011        16.12

Apr 1, 2011          16.21

Mar 1, 2011         16.04

Feb 1, 2011         16.52

Jan 1, 2011          16.30

Dec 1, 2010         16.05

Nov 1, 2010         15.88

Oct 1, 2010          15.90

Sep 1, 2010         15.61

Aug 1, 2010         15.47

Jul 1, 2010            15.72

Jun 1, 2010          16.15

May 1, 2010        17.30

Apr 1, 2010          19.01

Mar 1, 2010         18.91

Feb 1, 2010         18.91

Jan 1, 2010          20.70

Dec 1, 2009         21.78

Nov 1, 2009         28.51

Oct 1, 2009          42.12

Sep 1, 2009         83.30

Aug 1, 2009         92.95

Jul 1, 2009            101.87

Jun 1, 2009          123.32

May 1, 2009        123.73

Apr 1, 2009          119.85

Mar 1, 2009         110.37

Feb 1, 2009         84.46

Jan 1, 2009          70.91

Dec 1, 2008         58.98

Nov 1, 2008         34.99

Oct 1, 2008          27.22

Sep 1, 2008         26.48

Aug 1, 2008         26.83

Jul 1, 2008            25.37

Jun 1, 2008          26.11

May 1, 2008        25.81

Apr 1, 2008          23.88

Mar 1, 2008         21.81

Feb 1, 2008         21.74

Jan 1, 2008          21.46

Dec 1, 2007         22.35

Nov 1, 2007         20.81

Oct 1, 2007          20.68

Sep 1, 2007         19.05

Aug 1, 2007         18.02

Jul 1, 2007            18.36

Jun 1, 2007          17.83

May 1, 2007        17.92

Apr 1, 2007          17.48

Mar 1, 2007         16.92

Feb 1, 2007         17.49

Jan 1, 2007          17.36

Dec 1, 2006         17.38

Nov 1, 2006         17.24

Oct 1, 2006          17.14

Sep 1, 2006         16.77

Aug 1, 2006         16.67

Jul 1, 2006            16.61

Jun 1, 2006          16.82

May 1, 2006        17.46

Apr 1, 2006          17.77

Mar 1, 2006         17.80

Feb 1, 2006         17.80

Jan 1, 2006          18.07

Dec 1, 2005         18.07

Nov 1, 2005         18.01

Oct 1, 2005          17.64

Sep 1, 2005         18.44

Aug 1, 2005         18.72

Jul 1, 2005            19.00

Jun 1, 2005          19.00

May 1, 2005        18.93

Apr 1, 2005          19.02

Mar 1, 2005         19.84

Feb 1, 2005         20.11

Jan 1, 2005          19.99

Dec 1, 2004         20.48

Nov 1, 2004         20.05

Oct 1, 2004          19.25

Sep 1, 2004         19.35

Aug 1, 2004         19.03

Jul 1, 2004            19.51

Jun 1, 2004          20.17

May 1, 2004        20.14

Apr 1, 2004          21.23

Mar 1, 2004         21.62

Feb 1, 2004         22.46

Jan 1, 2004          22.73

Dec 1, 2003         22.17

Nov 1, 2003         23.15

Oct 1, 2003          24.75

Sep 1, 2003         26.42

Aug 1, 2003         26.57

Jul 1, 2003            27.65

Jun 1, 2003          28.60

May 1, 2003        28.24

Apr 1, 2003          28.05

Mar 1, 2003         27.92

Feb 1, 2003         28.46

Jan 1, 2003          31.43

Dec 1, 2002         32.59

Nov 1, 2002         32.03

Oct 1, 2002          29.24

Sep 1, 2002         28.89

Aug 1, 2002         31.53

Jul 1, 2002            32.46

Jun 1, 2002          37.92

May 1, 2002        41.41

Apr 1, 2002          43.81

Mar 1, 2002         46.71

Feb 1, 2002         44.57

Jan 1, 2002          46.17

Dec 1, 2001         46.37

Nov 1, 2001         43.62

Oct 1, 2001          39.72

Sep 1, 2001         36.90

Aug 1, 2001         37.85

Jul 1, 2001            35.46

Jun 1, 2001          33.67

May 1, 2001        32.02

Apr 1, 2001          27.96

Mar 1, 2001         26.10

Feb 1, 2001         27.81

Jan 1, 2001          27.55

Dec 1, 2000         26.62

Nov 1, 2000         26.90

Oct 1, 2000          26.50

Sep 1, 2000         27.34

Aug 1, 2000         27.97

Jul 1, 2000            28.05

Jun 1, 2000          28.16

May 1, 2000        27.49

Apr 1, 2000          28.50

Mar 1, 2000         28.31

Feb 1, 2000         27.76

Jan 1, 2000          29.04

Dec 1, 1999         29.66

Nov 1, 1999         29.74

Oct 1, 1999          28.66

Sep 1, 1999         29.99

Aug 1, 1999         30.89

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GREAT DEPRESSION ERA STATISTICS

Feb 1, 1933

14.88

Jan 1, 1933          17.29

Dec 1, 1932         16.63

Nov 1, 1932         16.40

Oct 1, 1932          16.18

Sep 1, 1932         17.96

Aug 1, 1932         15.69

Jul 1, 1932            10.22

Jun 1, 1932          9.35

May 1, 1932        10.40

Apr 1, 1932          11.63

Mar 1, 1932         14.75

Feb 1, 1932         14.19

Jan 1, 1932          14.07

Dec 1, 1931         13.84

Nov 1, 1931         16.23

Oct 1, 1931          15.30

Sep 1, 1931         16.90

Aug 1, 1931         19.04

Jul 1, 1931            18.86

Jun 1, 1931          17.56

May 1, 1931        17.48

Apr 1, 1931          18.66

Mar 1, 1931         19.92

Feb 1, 1931         18.90

Jan 1, 1931          17.00

Dec 1, 1930         15.99

Nov 1, 1930         16.29

Oct 1, 1930          16.59

Sep 1, 1930         18.39

Aug 1, 1930         17.62

Jul 1, 1930            16.98

Jun 1, 1930          16.68

May 1, 1930        17.87

Apr 1, 1930          18.19

Mar 1, 1930         16.51

Feb 1, 1930         15.38

Jan 1, 1930          13.92

Dec 1, 1929         13.29

Nov 1, 1929         12.94

Oct 1, 1929          17.83

Sep 1, 1929         20.19

Aug 1, 1929         19.67

Jul 1, 1929            18.86

Jun 1, 1929          17.43

May 1, 1929        17.34

Apr 1, 1929          17.32

Mar 1, 1929         17.66

Feb 1, 1929         17.60

Jan 1, 1929          17.76

 

Pulitzer Prize Winning Liberal Journalist Says Clinton Should Drop Presidential Bid!

Original Article by:  John Kass

Has America become so numb by the decades of lies and cynicism oozing from Clinton Inc. that it could elect Hillary Clinton as president, even after Friday’s FBI announcement that it had reopened an investigation of her emails while secretary of state?

We’ll find out soon enough.

It’s obvious the American political system is breaking down. It’s been crumbling for some time now, and the establishment elite know it and they’re properly frightened. Donald Trump, the vulgarian at their gates, is a symptom, not a cause. Hillary Clinton and husband Bill are both cause and effect.

FBI director James Comey‘s announcement about the renewed Clinton email investigation is the bombshell in the presidential campaign. That he announced this so close to Election Day should tell every thinking person that what the FBI is looking at is extremely serious.

This can’t be about pervert Anthony Weiner and his reported desire for a teenage girl. But it can be about the laptop of Weiner’s wife, Clinton aide Huma Abedin, and emails between her and Hillary. It comes after the FBI investigation in which Comey concluded Clinton had lied and been “reckless” with national secrets, but said he could not recommend prosecution…

[TO READ THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE CLICK HERE]

Buy SynodThe Synod is a conspiracy of 8 large international banks who seek to control gold, stock, bond and commodity markets all over the world. Jack Severs runs for his life when he learns too much, as the most sophisticated surveillance system ever built is deployed to track him down. As the ever-tightening noose closes, he struggles to uncover evidence to save himself and his world from collapsing! An exciting, fictional, fun and educational thriller about the banking cartel. Learn about the methods used to manage the price of gold and every other market on the planet, and how this affects business, politics and daily life in both the fictional and real worlds.