COMEX PHYSICAL GOLD DELIVERIES RISE 729% YEAR OVER YEAR!

Written by:  Avery B. Goodman  (01/29/2017)

The price of gold has been generally following the predictions I made on December 9, 2016.  So far, so good…

A lot of non-connected hedge funds and other speculators are now heavily short gold. That includes many people who are writing negative comments about the metal, and paying others to write negatively.  They have been drawn in by entities who know better, and who are heavily connected to the US Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, etc. The latter have likely closed most of their unhedged short positions even as the speculators have increased theirs.

The well-connected have known the gold jig is up for a very long time. They have engaged in what appears to be an attempt at a very organized and deliberate position change. A number of big banks, such as J.P. Morgan, HSBC, Goldman Sachs and others, for example, made huge purchases of gold bullion banker’s bars. They still have big problems from their past activities, but not so much on futures and forwards markets. The remaining problem comes in the form of a huge uncovered “short” position via massive tonnages of  gold inside London-based “unallocated storage” schemes.  It is possible that the unveiling of the new so-called COMEX “spot” silver and gold contract, as well as the huge physical gold purchases by big banks has been designed to shift this remaining risk.

The temporary downturn in gold prices, last week, is meaningless. It seems quite clearly to have been orchestrated by a few big options sellers. These smarmy folks always use automated trading software, around options expiration week, to trigger stop-loss orders and margin calls. It is done to temporarily push down paper gold prices, for the purpose of avoiding payouts on call options. Generally speaking, gold speculators buy many more gold calls than puts, so paying out on a rise in gold prices usually costs a great deal more than paying out after a fall in gold prices. The incentive to manipulate prices to prevent options from ending “in the money” is huge.

COMEX February options expiration day was the 26th of January, and it was the day of reckoning when buyer and seller determined how much, if anything, was owed on the matured options contracts. It is also my understanding that many of the privately negotiated “calls” at the various London’s LBMA member banks expired on the 27th. If the options dealers had not launched a coordinated attack on gold prices last week, a huge number of their “call” options would have expired heavily “in the money”. That would have meant billions paid out. Naturally, since casinos always make sure that the house never loses, the payouts won’t happen, thanks to the manipulations.

The most important thing to realize is that price manipulations, around options expiration, are always pure paper plays, and have no legs. However, they won’t end simply because access to the US gold reserve is cut off.  Such activities will continue until gold options are made illegal, or the people responsible are criminally prosecuted. A change in Presidential administrations may bring a lot of macro-level reform, including replacement of the people at the very top of the totem pole. However, regulatory staff members remain the same, as do the attorneys who work for the Department of Justice. So long as men and women continue to enter and exit federal agencies through a revolving employment and “consulting” door, into banks and brokerage houses, no serious prosecution is ever going to happen.

Far more important than the temporary manipulation of options dealers, however, is the physical market for real gold. January is an off-month for deliveries at COMEX. However, the number of gold futures contracts that stood for delivery this month resembles an active delivery month. That is interesting because COMEX has always been primarily a paper based exchange. Physical delivery is the exception rather than the rule. Delivery has always been theoretically possible, but it has been rarely done. In January 2016, for example, the holders of only 172 COMEX futures contracts demanded physical gold. In comparison, by January 27, 2017, the holders of 1,254 COMEX futures contracts held them to maturity and demanded their gold! That is a whopping 729% increase yoy!

We’ll see what happens in February. There are already an unusually large number of February contracts remaining open on Friday, a day before the first notice day. Monday is the first notice day for the February delivery month, which has always been a major one. This month is shaping up to be mildly historic in size. The overall delivery size looks like it will be at least as big as December, 2016, even though December is normally the largest delivery month by far. One thing is clear. As of Monday morning, holders of matured futures contracts are going to have to put up or shut up. They must either deposit sufficient cash to pay for the gold in full, or face involuntary liquidation.

No matter how massive the physical delivery demand may be, there is always the possibility that dealers will try to attack prices early in the month. They often do this. I believe that the reason revolves around the desire to buy physical gold bullion, from mining companies and others, at a rock-bottom price. They will do everything they can to create a fake price so long as it doesn’t cost them too much. The trouble for them is that, this month, it may cost them more to do it than they save from the results.

There always seem to be a number of “stragglers” among the contracts that are open on the first day of delivery. These speculators cannot afford to pay for their gold, but seem to foolishly hold onto their contracts anyway. They end up involuntarily liquidated and that process will always facilitate downward price manipulation. Because of the prospective size of February’s physical delivery (which is probably mirrored at the LBMA in London), however, gold prices should be resilient to this type of manipulative activity.

I think the rise in gold prices will begin, in earnest, somewhat earlier than usual this month. It should occur, at the latest, by the middle of the month, or even a lot earlier, as opposed to the typical late-in-the-month price rise that often occurs during big delivery months. The massive and very unusual physical demand in January is likely to have exhausted many of most easily accessed supplies, which will make it particiularly difficult for banksters to maintain such shenanigans.

Looking further out, as I have said before, other precious metals prices in 2017 will also be driven upward, by being cross traded with gold, as a result of the closure of the US gold reserve. A vast majority of the people surrounding President Donald Trump are not inclined to allow continued drainage of America’s golden treasure. Incoming Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has given lip service to the “strong” dollar policy, but both he and President Trump have stated that the US dollar is now overvalued. The impact of lower exports and higher imports on GDP has already showed up in dismal GDP performance numbers.

Political cooperation with bankster driven gold price manipulation has always been primarily driven by a desire to stabilize and/or prop up the exchange value of the US dollar. Since America’s leaders now want the dollar down, not up, giving access to the US gold reserve makes no sense. It will be cut off as soon as Obama’s gold-related executive orders come to Mr. Trump’s attention. That should happen a few days after the new Treasury Secretary is confirmed.  I have no doubt that the dealers are acutely aware of the fact that Obama’s not-so-secret orders, opening up the gold reserve to gold location swaps and other access, are now history. Downward price manipulation, at the current low pricing point, will become difficult or impossible. In the absence of the US Gold Reserve, prices must rise substantially before highly profitable manipulative activity can begin again.

The reversal of Obama’s executive orders are likely to be as much of a secret as the executive orders themselves were. I don’t expect any formal announcement as such. When it does finally happen, however, there should be a sudden price surge. That doesn’t mean gold is suddenly going to rise to $5,000+ per ounce. That will eventually happen. However, normal markets do not rise like rocketships. Prices may rise by $75 to $100 over a week or two. That is healthier than a massive $300 overnight skyrocket. Massive quick increases in any asset price, in the absence of some unusual major outside event, is the result of upside oriented market manipulation.

We will eventually see a lot of upside manipulation in gold prices (followed by repeated short price collapses) as manipulators turn their attention to profiting, in a different manner, from price volatility. The key point is that when gold prices finally move above the equilibrium point between supply and demand, they can be pushed upward, and then allowed to fall, without any need for physical gold. Until that change in orientation, however, we will see prices driven upward solely by the continuing excess of physical buyers over sellers.

Note that physical precious metals buyers, unlike futures market speculators, are thrifty people who don’t like overpaying. This won’t stop the early stages of a fast price rise, but it will begin to put downward price pressure, in the short run, if prices go too far too fast. Physical buyers stop buying when prices rise very fast. They will resist purchasing until they get used to new prices. The process requires time. That’s why gold price destabilization, rather than price suppression, is the primary goal of gold market manipulators. I expect the price of gold to rise slowly but steadily back to its prior supply/demand equilibrium point (somewhere between $1,500 and $1,600 or a bit higher).

If major upside manipulation events begin or a major outside event occurs, like a major default on corporate and government bonds, widespread insolvency of pension plans and/or the demise of the Euro currency, the sky will be the limit. Evidence of fiat currency instability will be so high, once the Eurozone collapses, that a much higher floor will be put underneath precious metal pricing.

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JP MORGAN GOBBLES UP A MINIMUM OF OVER 31 TONS (POSSIBLY UP TO 186 TONS!) OF PHYSICAL GOLD!

Back in August 2015, I noted that Goldman Sachs and HSBC had taken delivery of a huge tonnage of physical gold, probably purchased near the lows. Physical bars of gold are, by definition, a very long term investment in the yellow metal. At the time, the two banks were telling clients and others not to buy gold, even as they were loading up on it, themselves.

Let’s fast forward…

Starting in December 2015, JP Morgan began buying tremendous quantities of physical gold, as opposed to paper/electronic gold futures, forwards, ETF certificates etc. From December 1, 2015 to December 29, 2016, the big bank purchased and took physical delivery of over 31 metric tonnes worth of bars of the yellow metal for its house account at COMEX alone.

In other words, it now has a physical gold pile which, at minimum, is worth over $1.1 billion at $1,140 per troy ounce, and it is an asset of the corporate bank. By May, 2016, unlike the actions of GS and HSBC in buying while advising clients to sell, analysts at JP Morgan were beginning to encourage customers to buy gold also.

Let me repeat that the enormous purchase of 31+ tonnes of traceable physical gold occurred at New York’s COMEX exchange. The so-called “OTC” gold market in London is five times larger than the gold market in New York City, and if they were buying at COMEX, they were probably buying in London also. The problem with London is that the “LBMA” is not a formal exchange with disclosure rules and regulatory oversight. It is simply an informal collection of banks who operate by agreeing to a common set of rules of engagement. Transactions are secret.

We will never know how much physical gold has been purchased in London by JP Morgan, HSBC, Goldman Sachs or anyone else. However, if JPM’s purchases happen to be synchronized to market size, with New York’s COMEX, they will have purchased another 155 metric tons, for a total of 186 tonnes of gold. Either way, JPM is now in the realm of a sovereign sized gold holding. Most countries hold less than 31 tonnes of gold. Only a handful own more than 186 tonnes.

Why would a commercial bank, like JPM, make such a huge investment in physical gold bars? Is it just opportunism? Is it because they know that gold prices are going to rise dramatically? Do they know this because, as many have alleged, the company houses the most important or some of the most important people who run the gold price manipulation scheme? That’s fun to say but it makes no sense as a explanation for the purchase of so much physical gold. JPM may or may not be a gold manipulator, but that fact is irrelevant with respect to this question.

Generally speaking, the idea behind gold price manipulation is to mint a quick paper profit. If you can convince a foolish and incompetent American President to subsidize your front-running operation, by claiming that it is a way of “stabilizing the value of the US dollar”… all the better. Getting a government subsidy increases profits and reduces risk. But, there is no good reason to choose physical gold as your avenue of manipulation and every reason not to. For one thing, it is a non-leveraged investment. For another, it is more difficult to trade than shares of GLD, other ETFs, gold futures contracts, and mining company shares. All of the latter are far more efficient investments so long as the question of being able to get the real thing doesn’t come up.

In fact, all the big banks, including JPM have bought significant stakes in various gold mining companies over the last 2 years. Why spend money to store and insure physical bars of gold when it is more efficient to mint your profits by simply buying more mining company shares? That’s why the purchase of so much physical gold is puzzling. It seems to me that something bigger must be going on behind the scenes.

JP Morgan is the US Treasury and Federal Reserve’s most important proxy in financial markets. For example, it manages the Fed’s entire mortgage bond portfolio. Physical gold is not normally something that is on the top of the trading floor’s list of preferred products. These purchases are now tying up a significant percentage of the bank’s capital. In order to put so many resources into physical gold bars, JPM’s top management would have had to approve the action. That means the purchases must be supported by some very good underlying reason.

Top JPM management knows a lot more about the inside story about what is going on, behind the scenes, than we know. Is something big about to happen that will dramatically raise the value of real physical gold bars, above more convenient forms of gold ownership? I can think of only two scenarios that would make a large pile of physical gold bars the best corporate investment for a big bank (as opposed to its customers).

One scenario is that JP Morgan knows we have reached the end game and are on the cusp of the long anticipated collapse of the synthetic gold market (ie: gold futures, forwards, “unallocated” storage, maybe GLD etc.). If the gold derivatives market collapses, people will accept only physical gold for a very long time afterward. That would make a physical gold hoard far more profitable than even shares of a mining company. Remember, it takes time to mine more gold. But, the holder of a huge pile of existing bars can sell them, right away, when the level of panic is extreme, at the very top of the market, when demand (and prices) are at their highest.

Another scenario involves being at the cusp of a massive change in the world’s monetary system. If JP Morgan’s top management knows that physical gold is going to be a key part of what replaces the fiat US dollar as the international standard of exchange, and if that change is not very far in the future, it would make perfect sense to buy physical gold. Again, the holder would be in an excellent position to sell the gold bars to third parties (mainly, I suppose, to other banks and even nations) at the very top of the market.

The scenarios I’ve listed, above, are the only ones that come into my mind at the moment. That is not to say that the list is complete. Are there any more possible scenarios that provide a logical answer as to why JP Morgan is investing so much of its capital in such a huge number of physical gold bars?

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–  Josh Pullman –

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The Synod is a conspiracy of 8 large international banks who seek to control gold, stock, bond and commodity markets all over the world. Jack Severs runs for his life when he learns too much, as the most sophisticated surveillance system ever built is deployed to track him down. As the ever-tightening noose closes, he struggles to uncover evidence to save himself and his world from collapsing! An exciting, fictional, fun and educational thriller about the banking cartel. Learn about the methods used to manage the price of gold and every other market on the planet, and how this affects business, politics and daily life in both the fictional and real worlds.

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THE MOST INFLUENTIAL PEOPLE IN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TURN OUT TO BE GOLD STANDARD FANS

Vice President-elect Michael Pence is currently the most powerful single political influence on President-elect Trump. Among other things, he is in charge of the transition team. He will also be in charge, after the inauguration, with dealing with Congress. For leftists, hostile to gold, that is a problem. However, for those of us who believe that the only way to solve our long-term economic problems is by a return to honest money, it is a godsend.

The editor of the New York Sun realized this quite a while ago. He wrote, back in July, about the wise choice of then-Governor Mike Pence as a running mate:

“Donald Trump’s choice of Mike Pence for vice president would — if it is confirmed tomorrow — be a promising pick for those of us who see a restoration of sound money as the essential precondition for returning America’s economy to a trajectory of jobs and growth…

Why did the paper write this? Left-wing economists and politicians have a long standing case of aurophobia. They hate gold because it inhibits both corporatist and government control over the economy. Don’t bother telling them that the dishonest system of “debt money” enslaves the very people they claim to protect. Don’t bother pointing out that debt based money favors the accumulation of capital by a narrow portion of society who receive the money first. I am, of course, talking about the bankers on Wall Street. Don’t bother warning them that the constant inflation, inherent in debt money, will eventually destroy the hopes, dreams and savings of the middle class. They don’t want to listen.

In contrast, Vice President Elect Mike Pence views gold from the standpoint of a person who does not want the large corporations and government to have complete and detailed control over the economy. His view, therefore, is diametrically opposite. He believes that gold is important to the system because it provides a base against which other things can be measured. In a speech at the Detroit Economic Club in November 2010, he said, and I quote:

“…My dear friend, the late Jack Kemp, probably would have urged me to adopt the gold standard, right here and now in Detroit. Robert Zoellick, the president of the World Bank, encouraged that we rethink the international currency system including the role of gold, and I agree. I think the time has come to have a debate over gold, and the proper role it should play in our nations monetary affairs. A pro-growth agenda begins with sound monetary policy…”

President-Elect Trump, himself, can be said to be a bit of a gold bug. He bought the yellow metal in the 1970s at about $185 per ounce, and sold it at $780. After that experience, the taste for gold never left him. During the campaign, he stated:

“Bringing back the gold standard would be very hard to do, but boy would it be wonderful, because we’d have a standard on which to base our money.”

In contrast, starting with a not-so-secret executive order, signed on April 11, 2013, President Obama seems to have authorized a raid on American gold reserves to bolster his administration’s claims of economic success. The banksters’ scheme was designed to control the chirping “canary in the coal mine” (rising gold prices) because it was singing too loudly of failed economic policies. It was also designed to put a lot of private profits into banker’s pockets. Thankfully, things are going to be different.

The new administration is looking very gold-friendly. Neither Pence nor Trump have outright stated that they intend to restore the gold standard, although Pence did hint at it. Does that mean it’s going to happen? Probably not. The stupidity of the Obama  administration, in giving license to the banksters to drain away America’s gold reserves, has made it nearly impossible. The only way would be to institute an secret program to buy back the gold. Issuing new dollars in exchange for gold would increase the money supply, a form of economic stimulus, so it might fit into the new President’s plans.

It’s not only the President and Vice President who like the gold standard. Dr. Judy Shelton was one of the two economists named to Donald Trump’s economic advisory team in August. She is now a member of the President-Elect’s transition team, and is a very strong gold standard supporter. Shelton first rose to prominence among economists when she predicted the economic collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, two years before it happened. She says that many of the same issues are now appearing in the American banking system.  Her answer: reestablish the gold standard!

In an article in Fortune magazine, Dr. Shelton stated, and I quote:

In terms of gold being involved, some people may think of that as a throwback, but I see it as a sophisticated, forward-looking approach because gold is neutral and it’s universal.

The pre-election statements of President and Vice President, as well as the opinions of their most loyal advisors, answer the question many worry about. Some worry that “too many” people associated with Goldman Sachs are being appointed to positions in the Trump administration. Perhaps. However, that does not mean that banksters will be given free reign to continue doing what banksters have done in the past. In this case, banksters will not be allowed to continue pissing away America’s precious gold reserves. Top Trump administration people will surely see the schemes for what they are — personal enrichment programs for the banksters that support them.

The “Gold Reserve Act”, passed by Congress in 1934, requires the consent of the President before the Secretary of the Treasury can authorize tapping into America’s gold reserve. That’s what the meeting with President Obama and the CEOs of the biggest gold dealing banks, on April 11, 2013, was all about. It took place one day before the biggest attack on gold prices ever undertaken. The fact that the meeting took place at all, however, indicates that even left-wing Barack Obama was questioning the wisdom of raiding America’s gold.

Donald Trump appreciated the money that Steven Mnuchin, his only well-connected Wall Street fund raiser, brought in during the Presidential campaign. It is natural to reward someone after something like that, and that is why Mnuchin is now going to be US Treasury Secretary. But, even if he wanted to, which is not at all clear, it is very unlikely that Mnuchin would be able to convince President Trump to leave Obama’s gold reserve blasting executive order intact. Remember, Mr. Trump took issue with the idea of spending $4 billion worth of easily printable paper dollars on several new “Air Force One” 747s. Do you think he’s going to be convinced by anyone to piss away gold reserves, which are very difficult to replace?

The decline in gold prices, during November and December has been designed to allow manipulators with large, long-standing short gold positions, to shell-shock markets, facilitating an orderly escape with minimal damage. The hyping of India’s tax law changes was part of that, and is part of the strategy used to demoralize long speculators. The truth, however, is that even if India stopped importing gold, entirely, given the current excess of demand over supply, demand would still far exceed mining and scrap refining supplies. With that gap unfilled, the price must rise substantially. For more information about the true supply/demand situation for gold, see this article.

Going forward, the unplugged gap between supply and demand will be closed by the real market, not from further donations from the American treasury. Prices will rise once the banksters see the prospective cutoff from access to America’s gold reserves come too close for comfort. At that point, which will probably come in late December to early January, they will spin off whatever small short position they still have left, at any price they must pay to do it, and the upward movement will begin in earnest.

Buy Synod

“It moves fast, kind of like Robert Ludlum’s “Jason Bourne” trilogy…”

–  Josh Pullman –

The Synod is a conspiracy of 8 large international banks who seek to control gold, stock, bond and commodity markets all over the world. Jack Severs runs for his life when he learns too much, as the most sophisticated surveillance system ever built is deployed to track him down. As the ever-tightening noose closes, he struggles to uncover evidence to save himself and his world from collapsing! An exciting, fictional, fun and educational thriller about the banking cartel. Learn about the methods used to manage the price of gold and every other market on the planet, and how this affects business, politics and daily life in both the fictional and real worlds.

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THE MYSTERIOUS CASE OF 186 TONS OF MISSING GOLD!

The British Office for National Statistics just admitted that it miscalculated British imports by some £6 billion pounds sterling! Guess what they missed?  That’s right. What else? You guessed right — gold!  It always seems to be gold. Hmmm…

Anyway, it depends on the exact day each ounce of gold was imported, but generally speaking, that money adds up to about 186 tons of gold bullion. The uncertainties of Brexit seem to have caused a massive surge in gold demand in a very short period of time. It’s a huge amount of gold, and it compounds the point I have been making for a long time. World gold demand far outstrips supply.

Is the U.K. destined to replace China as the world’s largest gold buyer?  Doubtful.  Tiny Britain, of course, is not normally a gold buying nation. It’s per-person gold demand has always been far smaller than countries like Italy, France and Germany. When the zombie Euro finally comes to an end in 2-3 years, and is buried, keep this in mind. If people in tiny normally gold-phobic Britain can buy 186 tons of the pretty yellow metal in just 3 months, can you imagine what is going to happen when the second biggest trading currency in the world ends?  There will be 340 million people suddenly stuck with national currencies they have no faith in.

What will they buy? You guessed right again!

As Europe moves further into perceived monetary instability, gold demand will skyrocket. I calculated in previous articles, that if the price of gold remained under $1,200 per ounce, the not-so-mysterious gold supplier of last resort would have been on the hook to supply up to 1,345 tons of gold last year. But, that’s not all, folks! The 2014 Society of Mining Professors report, using data from Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, Société Générale (SG), AME, and Bloomberg, determined that world gold supplies (from mines, scrap recovery, ETF sell-offs, and hedging) were about 4,476 in 2012, 4,850 in 2013, 4,155 tons in 2014, and will be 3,845 tons in 2015 and 3,585 tons in 2016.

Lets add 186 tons worth of this previously unknown British demand, and subtract 260 tons from supply. The result is that some “not-so-mysterious supplier of last resort” will need to pony up as much as 1,790 tons of gold to keep prices under $1,200 per troy ounce. All of this comes at a time when the banksters’ “Patsy” has just gotten a new papa. He doesn’t like the fact that she’s been abused for so long and he says as much. Whether it’s China or the banksters, this new papa ain’t nearly as dumb as the old one. They’ve abused the sweet thing, pretty badly, over the years and he isn’t gonna’ let her date them anymore.

To be fair, supply may be a bit higher or lower than was estimated and the same can be said for demand. I used the older numbers because I didn’t want to sit for an hour or two finding the most recent ones. You can use my prior work as a template, and update everything yourself, to get the exact numbers. But, any discrepancies are not significant enough to materially change the outcome or the point. There is an enormous gap between supply and demand which someone has been filling. When they stop, and they are about to do just that, prices will skyrocket. How far they will go is anyone’s guess, but up they must travel.

As stated, previously, once Donald J. Trump takes office, it is almost certain that the official US gold reserves will be closed off. Is it any wonder that the manipulators recently engineered a long squeeze in gold prices for the purpose of bringing down prices so they can exit less painfully? They want out and for good reason! There is simply no way to meet the kind of demand we are seeing for gold at its current price without further raids on the US gold reserves. Remember, the same banks that manipulate COMEX prices would also be forced to ship physical gold to buyers in India, China, Turkey and, yes, now the U.K.!  They can’t avoid it, because if they do, the whole rotten system will be discredited.

Conclusion? Gold prices are headed strongly upward in the near future.

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The Synod is a conspiracy of 8 large international banks who seek to control gold, stock, bond and commodity markets all over the world. Jack Severs runs for his life when he learns too much, as the most sophisticated surveillance system ever built is deployed to track him down. As the ever-tightening noose closes, he struggles to uncover evidence to save himself and his world from collapsing! An exciting, fictional, fun and educational thriller about the banking cartel. Learn about the methods used to manage the price of gold and every other market on the planet, and how this affects business, politics and daily life in both the fictional and real worlds.

A perfect gift for the holidays!